LDF rides a wave of confidence

An anti-incumbency sentiment conspicuous by its absence may have made Kerala’s worldly-wise voter to fancy that ‘God’s in his heaven and all’s right with the world,’ but the fragile peace that he has sought to make with himself in the politically volatile state has been all but shattered in the last few days.

He cannot be faulted for wondering if the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) front went a bit too far advertising confidence about winning a rare second term. Rare, because the political spectrum has been bipolar in nature, with the LDF and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) sharing spoils by turn.

BJP presence

Spirited presence of BJP-NDA has not materially altered the status quo except when it managed to send its first — and lone representative so far — to the State Assembly in 2016. But this feat spectacularly fails to mirror its organisational strength in the State and status of the party in power at the Centre.

Five years down the line in 2016, it finds itself hoist with its own petard after forcing a change in the narrative ahead of the April 6 Assembly elections. Allegations of a ‘deal’ with archrival CPI(M) in a few constituencies in Central Travancore are hogging the limelight. The controversy was triggered by RSS ideologue R Balashankar who wanted to contest from home Chengannur constituency but only to be denied, allegedly at the instance of the state party leadership. Based in Delhi for the last many years and widely perceived to wield influence with the BJP’s power centre, Balashankar had nurtured Chengannur for the last few months. His allegations of foul play were directed at the state party president who is contesting from two seats, including the neighbouring Konni. Balashankar charged that his bid was thwarted as part of ‘deal’ struck with archrival CPI(M) to ensure a victory in Konni.

Suddenly, the BJP finds itself shot in the foot with allegations of such ‘deals’ flying thick and fast from even the post-Emergency days (thanks to the Congress-Muslim League-BJP alliance going by the politically vertiginous acronym ‘Ko-Lee-Bee’ in the local vernacular). The plot has only changed in terms of who has flung the charge the first this time and at whom. And here was Balashankar, training a smoking gun at his own party for preferring a weak candidate in ‘winnable’ Chengannur as also in Aranmula next door to ensure the victory of its state president from Konni.

The CPI(M) was quick to present a spirited denial and accuse the BJP-NDA instead for having brokered such ‘deals’ dating back as far back as 1980. The Congress was then in league with the BJP both for Assembly and Parliament. The revered KG Marar of the BJP was a mutually accepted candidate from Peringalam in Kannur while O Rajagopal had fought from the Kasaragod Parliament constituency. The understanding was micro-managed by Congress leader late K Karunakaran but had failed with the UDF tasting defeat. In 1991, this was on show in the Vadakara Parliament constituency and the Beypore Assembly seat. RSS votes had shifted to the UDF’s favour in as many as 50 Assembly constituencies, leading to an LDF defeat in 41.

The ‘Ko-Lee-Bee’ alliance

The UDF rode on the back of the ‘Ko-Lee-Bee’ alliance to power, says the CPI(M). At the Centre, the BJP and the Congress had worked in tandem to bring down the VP Singh government. The alliance found resonance in 2016 when the UDF reportedly had a secret alliance with the RSS in many Assembly constituencies. “That’s why you get to see UDF purposefully fielding weak candidates in these constituencies,” the-then CPI(M) state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan had told BusinessLine . It won the BJP its first-ever seat in Nemom that year.

On its part, the Congress seemed to be gesturing wildly to the LDF that the shoe is on the other foot and reminding it of its plight brought to light by no less a person than Balashankar. Senior leader Rahul Gandhi himself drove home the point accusing the outgoing LDF government of working up the lines with the Centre to keep multiple investigation agencies at bay. Charges and countercharges with the BJP-NDA as the favourite whipping boy has only helped the latter with a larger-than-life profile of a fighting presence in the state.

All three political coalitions here are decidedly layered over the enduringly stable, subterranean social alignments. The UDF draws its strength from Christian and Muslim communities who form 45 per cent of the population. A small percentage of the Hindu Nairs (about 14 per cent) and some Ezhavas (23 per cent) support the Congress but a major section of the Ezhavas and Dalits and a part of the minorities have chosen to lend their weight with the CPI(M).

The NDA-BJP has thrived on the pet theme of UDF’s alleged minority appeasement to consolidate the Hindu vote. As was the case in 2016, the BJP is politically allied, though tenuously at times, with the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), a party formed by the Ezhava Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam and comprising mainly neo-converts shifting allegiance to the BJP-NDA. The alliance has managed to make some inroads into the vote bank of both the UDF as well as the LDF over the years.

The Sabarimala issue

The Sabarimala issue, which had boosted the BJP-NDA votes, is now sought to be brought to back life both by the BJP-NDA and the Congress. They have found common cause with the plight of the faithful and dared the LDF government to withdraw its affidavit in the Supreme Court supporting the entry of women of all ages into the shrine.

An astute Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has, however, taken a nuanced position saying that a decision will be taken once the Supreme Court pronounces its final verdict.

Thus, all charges of corruption and nepotism and a litany of charges against the office of the Chief Minister that rattled him and the government no end during its last year in office, taking the sheen away from an alternately commended and reviled fightback against the Great Floods of 2018 and a near-encore of 2018 followed by Nipah fever and Covid-19 pandemic outbreak, seem to have been all but forgotten. The convincing win in the just-concluded local body elections merely went to state the obvious. No wonder, five pre-poll surveys conducted so far indicate the return of the outgoing LDF government.