The move by the BJP to engineer splits within Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and to take away their party names and symbols has not yielded the intended results in Maharashtra. The strategy sparked discontent over turncoats, compounded by agrarian issues, rising inflation, and lacklustre performances by incumbent BJP alliance MPs, significantly affecting the BJP’s prospects in the state.

The trends show that Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar have consolidated their positions in Maharashtra, casting doubts on the effectiveness of BJP state leader Devendra Fadnavis’ tactics. Despite Narendra Modi’s influence, the BJP has faced setbacks, as the voters in Maharashtra remain unconvinced.

The Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (INDIA) coalition, consisting of Congress, Shiv Sena (Thackeray), and NCP (Sharad Pawar), is showing strong electoral performance. In the ongoing count as at 1.30 pm, the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) data shows that Uddhav’s Sena is leading in 11 seats, Congress in 10, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP in seven, with a Congress rebel candidate also leading in one seat. Altogether, the INDIA bloc is leading in 28 seats.

In contrast, the BJP-led Maha Yuti (NDA), which includes Shinde’s Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, is trailing behind. The BJP is leading in 13 out of 28 contested seats, Shinde’s Sena in five, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP in just one. Overall, NDA leads in 19 seats.

Previously, the BJP had actively supported a split in Shiv Sena, leading to the fall of the Uddhav Thackeray-led government in Maharashtra. Eknath Shinde, a rebel Sena leader, was made Chief Minister, and the Election Commission recognized Shinde’s faction as the original Shiv Sena. A similar split was orchestrated within the NCP, with Sharad Pawar’s nephew, Ajit Pawar, aligning with the BJP. Despite most MLAs and MPs siding with Shinde’s Sena and Ajit’s NCP, this has neither benefited the BJP nor the breakaway factions of the Sena and NCP.

With its 48 Lok Sabha seats, Maharashtra is second only to Uttar Pradesh in electoral importance. The BJP’s alliance had previously secured 41 seats in the 2019 elections (BJP 23 and Sena 18). However, the current political turmoil has reshaped the electoral landscape in Maharashtra.

With dismal performance, Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde’s political future now hang in the balance as BJP would not like to continue the alliance for the forthcoming state elections.

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