The final results of the 2024 Lok Sabha (LS) elections revealed flaws in the exit polls process as predictions of a thumping majority for the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) did not materialise. Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu were among the States that particularly stumped exit pollsters.

Out of thirteen polling agencies, twelve had forecasted that the NDA would receive more than 350 seats, the opposition INDIA bloc would manage around 150 seats, and other parties would garner fewer than 35 seats. However, as of 7 pm, ECI data showed NDA had won or was leading in approximately 289 seats, INDIA bloc in 235 seats, and other parties in 18 seats.

Overestimation

For instance, News 24 Today’s Chanakya pegged NDA’s tally at 400 seats, while the INDIA bloc was projected to win 107 seats. India TV CNX predicted 371-401 seats for the NDA and 109-139 for the INDIA bloc. Similarly, the India Today-Axis My India poll forecast an NDA landslide with 361-401 seats and 131-166 seats for the INDIA bloc. All of these agencies significantly overestimated the NDA’s performance. Specifically, India Today-Axis My India predicted that the BJP alone would win around 322 to 340 seats, whereas Congress was expected to secure 60 to 76 seats. However, the actual results were off the mark with the BJP ending with around 240 seats and Congress closing at around 98 seats. The News 24 Chanakya poll predicted that the BJP could win close to 24 seats in West Bengal, while the Trinamool Congress was expected to secure 17 seats. However, the actual results showed a reversal of these predictions. BJP was winning/leading in only 12 seats as of 7 pm on Tuesday, and the TMC registered wins/leads in 24 seats. Similarly, the India Today-Axis My India poll forecast BJP would dominate Maharashtra with 20 to 22 seats and Congress was projected to win between 3 to 4 seats. However, the BJP lost close to 13 seats while Congress gained 12 seats in the major state.

Off the mark

Most polls predicted that the BJP would win over 60 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress would barely cross 10 seats each. However, the BJP’s seat share decreased to 40 per cent, while both SP and Congress saw significant increases in their seat counts compared to the 2019 LS election. This is not the first time that exit polls have overestimated the NDA’s performance. In the 2004 and 2009 LS elections, exit polls suggested that the BJP would secure a majority but the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) emerged victorious. Conversely, in the 2014 and 2019 LS elections, while the agencies predicted a BJP win, the quantum of seats projected was off the mark.

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