Ground Zero. Will Shashi Tharoor trump again in Thiruvananthapuram?

Options for voters in Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency have boiled down to decidedly two: choose the proverbial first among (three) equals, or meekly settle for what some of them believe would be ‘an anticipated sequel.’

Incumbent Shashi Tharoor of the Congress looms larger than life in the collective conscience, but Rajeev Chandrasekhar of the NDA-BJP and Pannyan Raveendran of the CPI (LDF) are emerging as strong contenders even before poll dates are declared.

No swing factors

In 2019, Tharoor trumped BJP ideologue Kummanam Rajasekharan by a margin of close to a lakh votes. The BJP had expected to reap benefits from the Sabarimala agitation and strong-arm tactics by CPM-led LDF state government to tackle it. In the end, it was Rahul Gandhi’s candidature in Wayanad that prevailed, with the UDF sweeping 19 of the 20 seats in the state. The LDF claimed the lone seat left in Alappuzha. The BJP ran a close second in many constitutencies, including Thiruvananthapuram.

Projections that Rahul could be a prime ministerial candidate helped in small measure in Thiruvananthapuram, too, where Tharoor raised his vote share from 34 per cent to 41.4 per cent, though lower than the 44.3 per cent in 2009. The BJP’s performance during the comparable period is instructive: from a mere 11.4 per cent in 2009, it tripled to 32.4 per cent in 2014 before squandering it a notch to 31.4 per cent in 2019, despite the Sabarimala factor and Rajasekharan’s spirited campaign.

Traditionally Congress

Thiruvananthapuram has traditionally favoured the Congress, though the CPI, an LDF-constituent, ensured it did not win every time. Among those who have won are CPI stalwarts MN Govindan Nair (1977); KV Surendranath (1996); PK Vasudevan Nair (2004); and Pannyan Ravindran (2005), who is being fielded this time as well. The Congress won separate single terms in 1980 (Neelalohitadasan Nadar); K Karunakaran (1998); and VS Sivakumar (1999) and has enjoyed extended three-term runs twice already.

A Charles won the seat for the party in 1984, 1989 and 1991, a feat Shashi Tharoor replicated in 2009, 2014 and 2019, and hopes to do one better. His tenures also saw the BJP grow in ascendancy by tripling its vote share. There is no Sabarimala-like factor this year; nor do the Pran Prathishta, Article 370 or UCC-CAA promise major electoral purchase here. And Rahul Gandhi is standing from Wayanad for a second time, replete with potential favourable vibes for the UDF in the entire state, as in 2019.

BJP extending outreach

The BJP knows this better than anybody else, and is taking a particular interest to extend its reach beyond the core Hindu voters. This correspondent caught up with Rajeev Chandrasekhar just as he was returning from a tour of the extreme South-East Parassala Assembly segment, a Hindu Nadar stronghold. Back in Thiruvananthapuram city, he addressed a function organised by the Vaikunta Swamy Dharma Pracharana Sabha (VSDP), a Hindu Nadar party and NDA-constituent. On a different plane, the BJP is aware of the likely impact from CAA-UCC, but Chandrasekhar blamed the UDF and LDF for taking turns to misguide a community for a few votes.

Hindu votes constitute 66.46 per cent of the total in Thiruvananthapuram, followed at some distance by the Christian (19.1 per cent) and Muslim (13.72 per cent) segments. The 2021 Assembly elections saw CPM come up trumps in all but one of the seven segments. What these results portend for the Parliament elections is anybody’s guess, but as a rule, Kerala has voted against the national trend as evidenced in 2019 when it returned UDF from 19 out of 20 seats while NDA-BJP was making huge gains elsewhere.

Vote share trends

In 2019, the Congress won from all but one of the seven Assembly segments, losing only Nemom to BJP by almost 12,000 votes. It romped home in the coastal Kovalam (32,000+ votes) and Neyyattinkara (28,000+ votes more than runner-up CPI) as well as in neighbouring land-locked Parassala (27,000+). Returns from the urban segment were mixed with Thiruvananthapuram returning a reasonable margin of 14,200 for the Congress, while it was too close to call in Vattiyoorkav (2,800+) and Kazhakkoottam (1485+).

Coastal segments in Kazhakkootam, Thiruvananthapuram, Nemom, Kovalam and Neyyattinkara populated by fishermen are known to swing votes at the wire. In the core urban segments though, all three Hindu candidates are expected to divide votes in the absence of any one swing factor. Detractors of Congress hope that Tharoor’s three-term tenure could work against him in the form of ‘voter fatigue’ or ‘anti-incumbency’ while his supporters dismiss these are far-fetched.

Tharoor hogs the limelight

Tharoor has hogged the limelight for 15 years, a feat he shares with A Charles. “Three terms, too many?” “Perish the thought,” pat comes the reply from Abhilash, Congress worker from the Thiruvananthapuram Assembly constituency. Tharoor is admired among party workers and the aspirational middle class for what he is, but reviled by some colleagues in his own party leadership. This has only helped earn voter sympathy and further burnish his credentials, boosted no less by selection as a CWC member.

“His appeal to the bipartisan voters is despite and not because of the Congress party,” says a nonchalant Ritwik (name changed), a booth-level office-bearer. This is despite his reportedly having rubbed some voters on the wrong side - not least the influential Latin Catholic for acts of omission or commission vis-a-vis alleged police atrocities against fishermen protesting against the Vizhinjam project. Sources say he has since talked out these issues and bought peace with the community.

A few months ago, he was pilloried by certain sections for his stance on Israel and Hamas. “Who else or which party can the minorities hope to vote for,” wonders S Jayasankar, a well-known political analyst in the state. This rings a bell in the context of notification of the CAA, and a stream of reports and images from Manipur.

BJP improves ‘connect’

Rajeev Chandrasekhar made a mass entry into the electoral firmament after being chosen as BJP candidate, but had a ‘landing problem’ to deal with initially, as some analysts put it. But he has improved his people-connect by crisscrossing the constituency during the last 10 days, taking care to reach out to the Christian community by meeting up with the bishops and visiting community strongholds. Supporters say his electoral war cry Ini karma nadakkum (now things will begin to work) is being heard.

Old warhorse Pannyan Raveendran has had an early bird advantage after being declared a candidate on February 26. The LDF has a campaign machine that matches the NDA-BJP’s in organisational skills and financial muscle, and managed to paint the town red before rivals could even get a start. As good as its ecosystem and campaigning skills are, LDF has only flattered to deceive in recent times by managing vote share of 30.7 per cent (2009) before eroding base to 28.5 per cent (2014) and 25.7 per cent (2019).