Political analysts had a field day when they saw the Chief Minister of Bihar, Nitish Kumar, carrying a lotus symbol in his hand while accompanying PM Narendra Modi on his road show in Patna. Analysts concluded that Nitish and JD (U) are on the back foot and the party might not perform well.

However, the narrative has changed. When Nitish visited Delhi a day before the declaration of the poll results, the same set of analysts changed their tone and claimed that something big would take place. Further, on Tuesday after several rounds of counting, the same analysts declared that Nitish will be a big brother in NDA in Bihar.

Seat sharing

As a part of seat sharing, BJP contested 17 seats, while JD(U) fielded 16 candidates. Chirag Paswan-led LJP (Ram Vilas) was given 5 seats and out of remaining two seats, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Rashtriye Lok Marcha got one each.

According to the ECI website at 8 pm, both JD (U) and BJP are expected to get 12 seats each, while LLP (Ram Vilas) is in a position to win in all five seats it contested. Hindustani Awam Morcha’s (Secular) Jitin Ram Manjhi has already been declared a winner, taking the NDA tally to 30.

This is nine short of the 2019 position. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA dominated Bihar, securing 39 out of 40 seats. The BJP won 17 seats, the JDU claimed 16, and the LJP secured 6 seats.

Bihar saw an intense contest on almost all 40 seats as former Deputy Chief Minister and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav campaigned aggressively for the INDIA alliance. He got strong support from Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi chief Akhilesh Yadav. All this is expected to take the INDIA tally to 9, out of which RJD is likely to get 4. It was nil for RJD in 2019. The alliance focussed on welfare measures, job scenario and inflation; all the issues got good response from youth.

Among key candidates, Tejashwi’s sister and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s eldest daughter Misa Bharti appears to be third time lucky. Contesting from Patliputra, she is all set to beat incumbent BJP MP and former RJD leader Ram Kripal Yadav. However, her sister Rohini Acharya, who came into the limelight after donating her kidney to her ailing father, might not have the same luck as she was trailing behind BJP’s Rajiv Pratap Rudy in Saran constituency.  

Out of three Central Ministers, Raj Kumar Singh is unlikely to retain his Arrah seat and set to lose to CPI (M)(L) Sudama Prasad. Singh’s two colleagues – Nityanand Rai (Ujairpur) and Girairaj Singh (Begusarai) have won. Two former Central Ministers, Ravi Shankar Prasad (Patna Saheb) and Radha Mohan Singh (Purvi Champaran) are comfortably ahead against their opponents.

Among all parties, apart from HEMS, LJP (Ram Vilas) is the only party which is expected to have a 100 per strike seat. All five candidates, including Chirag Paswan, are ready to re-enter the Lok Sabha. The party also has a unique record of fielding the youngest candidate in India, Sambhavi from Samastipur. She is leading by over 1.87 lakh votes, the highest among all five party candidates. She is the daughter of senior JD(U) leader Ashok Choudhry and daughter-in-law of the famous ex-civil servant Kishor Kunal.

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