The results of by-elections to one Lok Sabha and two Assembly seats in Karnataka may have an impact on the political dynamics in the State. Polling will be held on April 17 and results declared on May 2.

A win in one or more seats is likely to see Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa consolidate his position and enable his son BY Vijayendra, who has been strategising for the party’s success, getting a much bigger role in the Bharatiya Janata Party.

“Losing by-elections badly is bound to be negative for both Yediyurappa and his son and we may see a loud chorus for change in leadership,” said a senior party functionary. “All three constituencies have a strong Lingayat (the community to which Yediyurappa belongs) presence. So this may be a double-edged sword for father and son duo,” he added.

Congress’ situation

While for the Congress, the principal opposition party, a win is likely to be a boost to prepare for the assembly elections which is two years away.

The by-election in Belagavi has been necessitated following the death of Union Minister Suresh Angadi due to Covid-19. BJP has fielded Angadi’s wife Mangala and is banking on the Lingayat community and Marathas. While Congress, by fielding Satish Jarkiholi, is aiming for consolidation of backward class, Muslim and other minority communities.

Elections in Basavakalyan constituency in Bidar district was also necessitated following the death of MLA Narayan Rao of Congress, who also succumbed to Covid-19. Here, Congress is aiming to retain the seat, as BJP’s votes are likely to split following the presence of its rebel candidate and former MLA Mallikarjun Khuba.

BJP’s official candidate is Sharanu Salagar. The Janata Dal Secular has fielded Syed Yasrab Ali Quadri.

State of play

In Maski assembly constituency in Raichur district, elections were necessitated following Congress member Prathapgouda Patil’s decision to join the BJP in 2019. In the 2018 Assembly polls, Patil had won by a slender margin against Basanagouda Turvihal of the BJP. Elections here are set to witness a fierce battle, with the Congress and the BJP candidates having changed places.

It is a matter of prestige and stakes are high in Maski for BJP, particularly because Yediyurappa’s son Vijayendra is leading the campaign. Vijayendra has been successful in earlier by-elections.

Political observers are keenly waiting for the election outcome as in the last six months, as Yediyurappa and his son have angered many loyalists in the saffron party.