A fresh low-pressure area has formed over North-West Bay of Bengal, providing proof to the fact that the fundamentals of the monsoon system remain intact.

An early indicator to the good tidings was available yesterday when the south-eastern end of the trough over North India had found its way back to its normal moorings in the North-West Bay.

To expand coverage

It is exactly at this conjunction that the 'low' has developed, boosting the prospects of revival of the monsoon, currently confined to parts of the West Coast, adjoining peninsula and East India.

While the northern limit of the monsoon remains unchanged, India Met Department (IMD) assessed that the conditions are becoming favourable for its advance into the immediate neighbourhood.

It is expected to enter more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, remaining parts of Marathawada, parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and Jharkhand during the next four days.

Another favourable feature coming back into reckoning is the 'shear zone' of winds across Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh with a logical extension to the 'low' in the Bay.

Re-appearance of the shear zone could mean that the monsoon is bracing to enter another active phase over the next few days.

Active phase

IMD has already forecast heavy rain today over Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Vidarbha and Odisha, which fall under the footprint of the shear zone.

Thunderstorm with lightning has been forecast over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada, also falling under its footprint.

This apart, parts of North-West India, including Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakahand and East Rajasthan, may also experience thunderstorms during the next few days.

This would come about as moisture-laden monsoon easterlies steered by 'low' in the Bay run over warmed up land which has until now been under the grip of a sustained heat wave.

What needs to be monitored it the track of the 'low' as it heads into land. A track close to the Himalayan foothills may indicate that the monsoon is readying to enter a 'break phase'.

'Break monsoon' is an inevitable phase that occurs after the monsoon has run over land for a month or more, and shuts itself out for some time except over parts of East India and the East Coast.

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