Fresh monsoon surge may sustain up to June 27

A fresh monsoon surge seems to have been initiated along the West Coast from Tuesday marked by moderate to heavy rain, high winds and rough seas.

The Bay of Bengal too is expected to come to life over the next two days with the Met Department forecasting a fresh surge along the East Coast as well.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees the fresh spell being able to sustain in varying degrees of intensity at least until June 27.

Thereafter, the flows from the Arabian Sea are predicted to weaken gradually. This is likely to coincide with the West Pacific getting into action mode.

Global models have indicated that the West Pacific would likely witness an active typhoon (cyclone) season, something that weather watchers here wary of.

A good number of the typhoons thus forming are predicted to go take in an east-northeast track (farther and away from the Indian subcontinent).

This is a condition that is not expected to go down well with the prospects for monsoon over India since the away-going typhoons will rob it of precious moisture to sustain the rain.

Meanwhile, the ground being prepared for the enhanced typhoon season in the West Pacific received further credibility with an Australian Bureau of Meteorology outlook.

The Bureau said that the West Pacific has been getting warmer than what presumed El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific would suggest.

In typical El Nino conditions, it is the East of the Pacific that gets warmer. Chances of an El Nino turning out this season are still considered at an elevated 70 per cent.

Meanwhile on Tuesday, the country’s West Coast was put on alert with warnings of rough seas, high winds and heavy rainfall in clear signs of a revival of monsoon.

Over Kerala, heavy rain warning is valid for isolated places in the State for the next three days.

Fishermen have been advised to exercise caution during next 24 hours sine strong winds from a westerly direction with speed occasionally reaching 45- to 55 km/hr is likely along and off Kerala and over Lakshadweep islands. In a warning issued for Goa and Maharashtra, the local Met centre said that winds will be south-westerly speeding to 45- and 55 km/hr in gusts/squall.

The Chennai Regional Met Centre has put the entire Karnataka coast with forecasts of strong onshore winds from a westerly direction with speeds occasionally reaching 45-55 km/hr along and off Karnataka coast.

On the east coast, warning is valid for Chennai and Puducherry where south-westerly to westerly offshore reaching speeds of 45-55 km/hr are likely along and off the respective coasts.