A raging heat wave that killed more than 2,000 people over central and peninsular India is also responsible for lulling the monsoon into submission.

Hot and dry north-westerly winds from the deserts of the Middle-East and Pakistan turning clockwise over India converted as north-easterlies to stall the monsoon over the Arabian Sea.

On its own

The monsoon-laden south-westerly winds heading from the south and west Arabian Sea have had to face the onslaught of the hot and dry winds blowing from inland.

They proved weak and unsteady in the bargain and gave in to the barrage. They could not make much headway closer to the Kerala coast, a situation that obtains this morning as well.

The monsoon cause was not helped by the fact that it had to be on its own, without support from the upper levels of the atmosphere.

This is drawn from the periodical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that passes over west to east over the Indian Ocean, of which Arabian Sea is a part.

Gets derailed

International models had ruled out the benefit of the wave during the onset phase of the monsoon.

There have been occasions when the monsoon flows have been very strong to propel on their own and precipitate the onset; but not this time.

An extended forecast by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology suggested that the heat wave will retreat from peninsula gradually.

But it would merely migrate to parts of northwest India and adjoining east India where it may hold strong until mid-June.

The monsoon may make some progress over peninsula during this phase but would not peak until this time, it said.

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