The Met office has issued a warning for heavy to very heavy rainfall at one or two places in Kerala during the next four days as the onset of the South-West monsoon draws closer.
The onset may be declared either on Tuesday or Wednesday as necessary parameters fall into place one after the other.
Heavy (7-11 cm) to very heavy (12-20 cm) rainfall is most likely to occur at one or two places in Kerala till Monday morning, the Met said.
Strong westerly winds with speed occasionally reaching 45-55 km/hour are likely along and off the coast and over Lakshadweep area until Monday afternoon.
Moist winds During the 24 hours ending on Sunday morning, rain occurred at most places in Kerala and Lakshadweep. Heavy to very heavy rainfall reports were reported from Vadakara (16 cm) and Manjeri (7 cm).
A persisting cyclonic circulation over East-central Arabian Sea off Karnataka coast is fanning in moist winds from the sea into the northern coast of Kerala, and hence, the heavier precipitation.
Rain or thundershowers are likely for most places over the next four days over Kerala and Lakshadweep.
In fact, global models say that the rains may scale up all along the West Coast during this week, becoming heavier during the next.
Konkan-Mumbai-south Gujarat could witness heavy to very heavy rain during June 10 to 12, according to the US National Centres for Climate Prediction.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts agrees, given that the monsoon flows may head northward along the West coast during the second week.
During the first, however, they may target the Kerala-Karnataka coasts, apart from surging through the Gulf of Mannar to enter the Bay of Bengal.
Some models maintain the outlook for these flows to blow into the sails of an existing cyclonic circulation off the Andhra Pradesh coast, helping it to intensify as a likely storm.
This would drive up the rainfall in East India (Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal) as well as the North-East leading to the onset of the Bay of Bengal arm of the monsoon.