India may witness the fourth wave of Covid-19 from June 22, 2022, a study by the researchers of the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, said.

The study titled “Fourth Wave of Covid-19 in India: Statistical Forecasting” was led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of IIT-Kanpur’s Mathematics department. The study relies on the data collected on Covid-19 from a public repository called ‘Our World in Data’. According to the forecasting model used by IIT-Kanpur researchers, the fourth wave of Covid-19 may occur after 936 days from January 30, 2020. It might reach its peak on August 23, 2022, and end by October 24, 2022. However, the researchers said that there is always a fair chance that a new variant may have an intense impact on the whole analysis and the intensity will depend on factors such as infectibility and fatality.

To sensitise people

Researchers added that the findings of the study are to help and sensitise people. The research further said, “the effect of vaccinations — first, second or booster dosage — may also play a significant role on the possibility of infection, degree of infection and various issues related to the fourth wave.” “The third wave of COVID-19 was predicted for India using the data of Zimbabwe, and when the third wave in India is getting over, it is now clear that the forecast was correct,” the researchers added. Zimbabwe and India have the maximum visible similarities in the shape of the Covid waves, and the concept of Gaussian distribution based on the data of Zimbabwe was employed in the study.

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