India Meteorological Department (IMD) has concurred with forecasts by global weather models with respect to the possibility of a storm developing in the Arabian Sea during the first week of October.
The IMD said in its weather bulletin on Sunday that a preparatory low-pressure area is likely to pop up over the South-East Arabian Sea towards this weekend (Saturday, October 6) and subsequently intensify into a depression.
The ‘low’ is likely to form over Lakshadweep Sea in the immediate vicinity of Maldives to the South-West and Lakshadweep to the North, slightly farther West of Sri Lanka and South-West of the Kerala coast.
According to the IMD, the depression is likely to move in a north-westward direction away from Maldives, Lakshadweep and Kerala into the open Central Arabian Sea within two to three days of its genesis.
Cyclone possibility
The global models indicate the possibility of the depression further intensifying into a powerful cyclone, eyeing the coasts of Oman-Yemen for a landfall, according to the initial outlook.
But a weather tracker of the US National Weather Services sees a stray rain-head from the system moving along the West Coast of India to head right into Mumbai.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is of the view that, while the strong Arabian Sea system would be the focus of the week beginning October 8, the Bay of Bengal also may get into active mode in tandem.
May trigger N-E monsoon
It sees a ‘low’ developing over the South-East Bay and intensifying into a likely depression, equidistant from the Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts over the West-Central Bay by October 9. If this were to materialise, it would help the north-easterly wind regime to settle over the seas also over the South Peninsula and provide the 2018 North-East monsoon a spectacular start.
The IMD has already forecast a normal to selectively above-normal rainfall for the season this year, with Tamil Nadu likely to receive excess rainfall. There is a possibility that overall, the season could provide a surprise on the upside.
Meanwhile, outlook for Monday said that heavy rain is likely for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Thunderstorms and lightning have been warned over Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karnataka and Kerala. A mostly similar forecast is valid for Tuesday as well, with thunderstorm activity growing North along the West Coast for the next few days.