India’s defence and strategic ties with the US are likely to deepen under the Trump 2.0 administration given shared concerns over China’s assertion in the Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region. There is also a perception that the Republican leader may broker peace between Russia and Ukraine which would ease supply-chain constraint issues that New Delhi is facing.
But, defence experts within the government and industry leaders equally believe that US under Donald Trump may push India to buy more military hardware and software from their companies, multiplying big ticket deals like that of 31 MQ9B drones which is worth more than $3 billion.
India has contracted for nearly $20 billion worth of US-origin defence articles since 2008, according to the US Defence Department.
The US is not only eyeing a large pie in at least $200 billion India is going to spend in the coming decade to modernise its armed forces but it wants to reduce New Delhi’s dependence on Russian supply of defence arsenal.
“Since 2008, about 62per cent of India’s defence imports (by value) have come from Russia; other top suppliers include France (11per cent), the US (10per cent), and Israel (7per cent). The US government is actively encouraging India to reduce its dependence on Russian-origin defense articles,” the US Congressional Research Service document published on May 30, 2024, stated.
Rajinder Singh Bhatia, President of the Society of Indian Defence Manufacturers, told businessline that defence ties with the US will get a boost with Trump at the White House.
“We are looking forward to greater collaboration on co-design, co-development and co-production between the two countries, utilising the framework of Indus-X,” stated Rajinder Singh Bhatia.
An industry leader, who did not wish to come on record, said the Trump administration will go beyond what President Joe Biden did to contain China through tariff restrictions but we may be pushed to buy more US defence products.
This industry view of India benefiting with Trump back in power was also shared by a defence expert within the government who said, that we may see a total strategic de-coupling from the US current “small yard, high fence” approach which was that the present regime at Washington would just deny critical technology but would make more song and dance about it.
“What we can hope for is strengthening of Quad, revised during Trump’s first regime, which would be advantageous to India given China’s flexing of muscle. Also US–India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology, or iCET, a collaborative framework to enhance cooperation in developing fields of technology will get a leg-up”, said the defence expert.
How much India can nudge China now, after the breakthrough on border talks leading to disengagement and resuming of patrolling along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh is an aspect that cannot be ignored? felt sources.
We will have to be deal maker and act more like a matured democracy, he commented while wishing that Trump will reduce conflict in West Asia and Europe which would ease supply-chain constraint issues disrupting Indian defence sector.
The good equation between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President elect Donald Trump is another factor generating hope that defence ties will deepen with regime change in US.
A senior government officer advising on defence matter, however, held a more cautious approach on the Republicans returning to power in the US. He said, we should wait for a statement from Trump for an objective assessment of his administration on how defence bilateral relations will evolve in future.
The sketch we can have now will be based on his previous stint but that would be notional because since then geo-politics has changed significantly. “We don’t know how he is going to handle the global insecurities like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts and Taiwan crisis which did not happen in his time,?” the officer wondered.
How Trump’s conflict with the deep state of US emerges will also be interesting to Americans as well as to the Indian government facing scruiteny on Khalistan issue, another government officer added.