While pollsters have predicted a hung Assembly in Karnataka, that party that wins the most number of seats in Old Mysore, Bombay-Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka regions, is likely to form the next government.

During Saturday’s polling, Karnataka witnessed an all-time high turnout of 73.07 per cent, with districts other than Bengaluru, bettering even the post-Emergency election (1977) record of 71.9 per cent and the 2013 State election figure of 71.45 per cent. In Bengaluru, the turnout was 55.34 per cent compared with 57.37 per cent during 2013.

A hung Assembly will throw up interesting possibilities. Congress and Janata Dal(S) leaders have already started making subtle overtures to each other, with Congress minister DK Shivakumar stating that he expects the JD(S) to perform better this time. If they do combine to form the government, it could be at the cost of some top leaders; so, as of now, this looks quite improbable.

If the BJP and the JD(S) team up. which again seems quite unlikely as of now, it could see an entirely new set of leadership at the helm, with H D Kumaraswamy getting another shot at Chief Ministership.

However, most political analysts this paper spoke to say Prime Minister Narendra Modi's whistle-stop tour of the State during the last days of the campaign has certainly influenced the voters.

Key regions

Among the three key regions in the State, Old Mysore has a total of 57 seats and the polling was 72.38 per cent compared to 74.76 per cent in 2013.

In Bombay-Karnataka, there are a total of 50 seats and the region recorded a turnout of 67.91 per cent compared to 72.04 per cent in 2013.

In Coastal Karnataka, there are a total of 21 seats and the polling percentage was 73.12 per cent against 77.97 per cent in 2013.

Together, these three regions return 128 members to the Assembly, and the turnout was lower than in 2013.

In Coastal Karnataka, the BJP has five seats and is fairly confident of winning them all. But analysts say that the party might be in for a rude shock as its aggressive Hindutva stance may backfire. The Congress, with 13 seats, is likely to increase its tally there because of the strong candidates it could field. The lower turnout is likely to help the Congress, according to analysts.

In Bombay-Karnataka, the Lingayat and the Mahadayi river issues are likely to play a major role in deciding who will move ahead. It remains to be seen whether the Congress’ gamble of according religious minority status to Lingayat-Veerashaivas pays off; an umbrella organisation of Lingayat mutts has urged its followers to vote for the Congress. In this region, the Congress has 31 seats and the BJP 13, but with the Reddy Brothers and Sriramulu now part of the BJP, the party expects to perform better. The lower turnout lesser may actually help the BJP, feel analysts said.

In the Old Mysore region, which is traditionally a stronghold of the Vokkaligas, the JD(S), with 23 seats, could get the same number of seats or less, as predicted by various exit polls. This is primarily because voters do not see it forming a government on its own.

Exit polls

The Congress, with 25 seats, has a better chance as a lower voting percentage has always helped the party vis-a-vis the competition, The BJP has two seats and might retain them. According to Chanakya exit poll, the BJP is likely to get 39 per cent voting share, which is near the halfway mark. This would help the party get 120 seats while the Congress is expected to get 73 and the JD (S), 26.

Axis My India exit poll has predicted a similar, 39 per cent, voting share but for the Congress which will help the party win 106-118 seats and the BJP with a 35 per cent voting share is expected to get 71-92 seats while the JD (S), is expected to get between 22-30 seats, which is 10 seats less.

The ABP-C exit poll suggests that the BJP will get 97-109 seats, the Congress 87-99 seats and the JD (S) 21-30 seats.

All these go to show that the JD(S) will most probably play the kingmaker’s role, as predicted even during various pre-poll surveys.