Cyclone Nanauk has weakened twice during the last 24 hours into a well-marked low-pressure area over west-central Arabian Sea.
It has been put on a track, headed back towards the west coast of India, model updates suggested this afternoon.
The well-marked ‘low’ has shifted track from north to northeasterly, which puts it in the line of sight from the Gujarat-Konkan coasts.
Weakening of the cyclone will help re-direct monsoon flows from the Equator to the west coast, leading to onset over the Konkan coast during the next two days.
Seasonal rains
Seasonal rains are also expected to break over Mumbai - which had missed the bus on the due date of June 10 - soon afterwards.
In other developments, monsoon winds have set up a enhanced cloudiness over the central Bay of Bengal, where an upper air cyclonic circulation is already in place to rally them around.
This circulation is widely thought to prepare the ground for the all-important low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal which will preside over monsoon play over north India.
Tropical storm Hagibis
Meanwhile, some of the flows from the Bay are now going to feed tropical storm Hagibis that has just formed over the South China Sea/West Pacific next door.
This development had been predicted by US agencies a couple of days ago. They had suggested that the storm would move northeast towards east of Taiwan.
Normally, this track for a storm forming during this stage of the monsoon should affect the play-out of rains over upstream Bay of Bengal and India.
But the storm is now forecast to die out over the next 12 hours over the China coast along Shantou-Yunxiao. Honk Kong may also get hit by the system.
The projected short shelf-life of Hagibis would mean that the Indian monsoon system would remain unscathed by its ‘diversionary tactics’ to spirit away incoming flows and moisture.