India Met Department has put out a watch for intensification of the low-pressure area over South-East Bay of Bengal into a depression by tomorrow (Sunday).
This points to a rapid intensification of the 'low' that formed last night and which has already undergone one round of strengthening as a well-marked 'low'.
The system has a good distance to travel towards Tamil Nadu/Sri Lanka, which allows it the time and space to gather strength ahead of reaching either of these coasts for landfall.
The sea-surface temperature is 28- to 29 deg Celsius which is helpful for intensification and the vertical wind shear (sudden change in wind speed and direction with height) is low.
According to several global models, including the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, a 'weak cyclone' may be in the making here over the 'next two to three days'.
In India Met department parlance, this can amount to a depression or deep depression, which is one or two steps below a full-blown cyclone.
According to the global models, the capacity to grow further in strength would be limited only by the proximity to land at any given time.
Rain-maker system
But it does not amount to a comment on its rain-making capacity, according to Met watchers, who point to the enormous supply of moisture being conjured up by the brewing system.
Fishermen has been warned against venturing out into the sea off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry tomorrow since wind speeds along and off the coast may peak to 40- to 50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr.
Heavy to very heavy rain and even extremely heavy rain has been warned of in the entire region falling under the footprint of the depression looming large over the Bay.
This includes the Met subdivisions of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and Kerala where heavy weather warning would be valid until November 18 (Wednesday).