True to forecasts, the India Met Department has said that a rain-triggering low-pressure area is expected to pop up over South-East Bay of Bengal by Saturday.
Tamil Nadu will start getting a fresh wave of rains from the system from the same day since the larger easterly wave hosting the ‘low’ would start impacting the coast.
Saturday: Heavy rain would occur at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Sunday: Heavy to very heavy rain would occur over isolated places over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
Monday: Heavy to very heavy rain would occur at isolated places over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and heavy rain over Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Meanwhile, the ‘low’ would be put under constant watch for signs for intensification since it has a long way to travel towards the Sri Lanka or Tamil Nadu where it is likely headed.
Likely depression The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction sees a likely depression toying with the North-East tip of Sri Lanka by Monday.
It may possibly intensify another round and move West-Northwest likely towards Nagapattinam-Puducherry to become the second deep depression to hit the coast during this season.
Early outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is not that optimistic and suggests that the system may wash over the coast as a depression at best.
Meanwhile on Thursday, India Met located convective (rain-triggering) hanging heavy over part of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Central and South Arabian Sea, Central and South Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. Rain or thundershowers lashed many parts of South Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema and at a few places in Coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the 24 hours ending in the morning.
Arabian Sea ‘low’ Clouds over Arabian Sea and parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu are attributed to a remnant cyclone of the erstwhile deep depression setting up a ‘low’ over South-East and adjoining East-Central Arabian Sea.
Unlike the two preceding ‘lows’ that went on set up back-to-back cyclones of record-breaking intensity in the basin (extremely severe cyclones ‘Chapala’ and ‘Megh’), the latest one may fail to get traction over the very waters pulverised by the predecessors.
The European Centre is of the view that the ‘low’ may linger over the Central Arabian Sea for sometime and become inconsequential in due course.