The India Met Department (IMD) has forecast heavy rain over coastal Tamil Nadu and progressively over adjoining South Coastal Andhra Pradesh over the next three-four days.

This is in view of a low-pressure area crossing over into South-East Bay of Bengal from the international waters, and filling skies over the entire Central and South Bay of Bengal with clouds.

Toying with coast Satellite pictures in the evening showed cloud bands over Chennai and North Coastal Tamil Nadu with some fanning into adjoining Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka. Wind-field projections by the IMD suggest that the ‘low’ may have already linked up with an existing cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Mannar and, in turn, with a trough over South-East Arabian Sea.

The Bay and the Gulf of Mannar systems would merge and the combine is set to approach the Tamil Nadu coast and stay put to trigger another wet spell that would cover parts of the interior as well.

Peaking of activity along the coast would be matched by a fresh buzz in the South Bay of Bengal where a follow-up ‘low’ is forecast to spring up in another five days (by Tuesday next).

This too would join the bandwagon along the Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh coast, from where leading rain-heads would get blown away along the coast towards North Andhra Pradesh/Odisha.

Fresh ‘low’ soon The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees the combined ‘low’ intensifying a round or two, but weakening just before it reaches the North Andhra Pradesh coast by November 17/18.

The weakening is due to the disruptive influence of a ‘loaded’ western disturbance moving across North-West India, whose outer wind bands would invade South India to usurp the ‘low’ and smother it.

But the western disturbance is keenly awaited by North-West India for its capacity to generate thundershowers, which can wash down atmospheric pollutants and offer some relief from the smog that has settled over the region.

The weather tracker of the US Climate Prediction Centre too has pointed to the possibility of enhanced weather activity off the Tamil Nadu coast during the weekend and into the next.

Rain will escalate early next week even as the follow-up ‘low’ takes shape over the Andaman Sea and moves in towards East-Central Bay of Bengal, it said.

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