The outlook for an El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific has been 'scaled down a bit' with a couple of global models doubting if the warming trend can hold on to break the required threshold.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said only five of the eight models it tracks have retained their assessment that the El Nino threshold will be breached in the coming months.
This is two fewer than the number which we originally expected that this would happen with 'some certainty' with ramifications for weather patterns globally, more so in India and other Asian countries.
The warming of the East and the Equatorial Pacific is being watched closely by the India Met Department for the likely impact for the South-West monsoon that begins in June.
The warming of the far-end of the massive ocean takes away the rain-bearing clouds from India, leading to drier conditions here though with honourable exceptions.
Sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific are 0.5 degree Celsius more than the average, but below the +0.8 degree Celsius threshold required for El Nino levels.
A majority of the international weather models are of the view that the Pacific will continue to warm during the summer months, though the forecasts have lower accuracy during this time of the year.
Models also indicate that a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, a warming anomaly in the Indian Ocean that closely resembles one in the Pacific, is evolving in the country's backyard.
A positive phase means the western end of the Indian Ocean is warming relative to the East, which is good for the overall health of the Indian monsoon.