Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first world leaders to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory in the US Presidential elections on Wednesday calling him “my friend” while the US President-elect has been effusive in his praise for the Indian Prime Minister during his election campaign.

“Heartiest congratulations, my friend…on your historic election victory. As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-U.S. Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership…,” Modi said in his message to Trump.

‘Reciprocal tariffs’

However, Trump’s victory is unlikely to result in a major policy shift towards India as the country anyway enjoys bipartisan support in the US, say experts. On the other hand, India may actually need to watch out for stiffer action on the tariff front as “reciprocal tariffs” against Indian goods have been one of Trump’s prominent election pitches.

There is a general bipartisan consensus in the US with regard to deepening relations with India due to their own strategic global objectives, pointed out Anil Trigunayat, a former diplomat. “Given India’s economic and democratic and demographic heft and strategic autonomy in foreign and security policy, even though reluctantly acknowledged, is seen as useful in their geopolitical and geoeconomic considerations hence despite occasional blips and irritants US-India relations will move apace,” he said.

Narendra Modi and Donald Trump

Narendra Modi and Donald Trump | Photo Credit: Narendra Modi Twitter handle

India-US relations were largely positive during Trump’s first stint as the US President starting 2017, pointed out Arun K Singh who served as the Indian Ambassador to the US in 2015-16. One of the noteworthy decisions was Trump permitting higher level of technology releases to India which was helpful in Galwan clash with China. Singh also highlighted joint participation of Modi and Trump in events like “Howdy, Modi!” in 2019 and “Namaste Trump!” in 2020.

Things to watch

However, his action on trade and tariff is something that need to be watched out for. “There is some element of erraticism and unpredictability in his decision making. One has to see how he settles in and defines his priorities,” he said.

What is of concern to Indian industry is Trump’s attack on India’s “high tariffs”. During an election rally last month, Trump criticised India’s tariffs on foreign products and also talked about bringing in reciprocal tax if he won the elections.

“Tariff issues could surface in a much more awkward manner (following Trump’s victory). This is Trump’s long-term agenda of fixing countries that have high tariffs. He called India tariff king at one point of time. Action against tariffs could happen more dramatically,” said Biswajit Dhar, Distinguished Professor, Council for Social Development.

On the positive side, Dhar said that Trump would not be as harsh on Russian President Vladimir Putin as the present US President Joe Biden and the pressure on Indian companies dealing with Russian firms would be less.

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