The monsoon continues to pour down over North-West India and the India Met Department (IMD) expects it to make good progress during the next two days as well. In fact, it has left behind the two intervening lag phases behind, and is approaching its normal July 1 status around the appointed time.

NORMAL TIMELINE

The monsoon’s entry into Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi over the next two days - which is around normal - lays the ground for it to spread out over extreme western Rajasthan and Gujarat.

The presence of a western disturbance over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh is reassuring since it raises prospects for an interaction between the westerlies and the monsoon easterlies. The interaction has been known to generate heavy precipitation, given that the easterlies from the Bay of Bengal would carry moisture-laden clouds.

And the path for the incoming moisture has been made clear by the formation of a trough connecting West Rajasthan to the North-West Bay, where a resident cyclonic circulation would help pump it in. This land-based trough (as against the offshore trough on the West Coast) cuts across North Madhya Pradesh, South-East Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha, indicating areas of focused monsoon activity.

NORTHERN LIMIT

The northern limit of the monsoon passes through Veraval, Amreli, Ahmedabad, Udaipur, Sawai Madhopur, Aligarh, Tehri, Una and Amritsar. It begins from Gujarat and cuts through East Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, the entire region to the South, West and East of which has been covered already.

It represents more than three-fourths of the geography, and is a vast improvement over the June 13 position when it was caught napping on the West Coast and parts of Central India.

The IMD said the monsoon has advanced into more parts of East Gujarat, East Rajasthan and Punjab, the remaining parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Bihar and Jharkhand, entire Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir; and most parts of West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

Meanwhile, pre-monsoon thunderstorm activity is likely to continue over the remaining parts of northwest India for another day, the IMD said.

HEAVY RAIN SEEN

An extended outlook valid for July 3 to 5 forecasts enhanced rainfall activity with heavy to very heavy falls likely over the North-East and adjoining eastern India. Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is also indicated for the West Coast; the East and West could get affected ahead of a fresh circulation forming in the North-West Bay.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall has been forecast over the remaining parts of the country during this phase outside Rajasthan and North Gujarat, where isolated rainfall is likely. In the short-term, the forecast for the rest of today is for heavy to very heavy rain for Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Coastal and South Interior Karnataka.

Heavy rain is likely over Uttarakhand, Punjab, Rajasthan, East Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Telangana, Arunachal Pradesh, the North-Eastern states, Jharkhand and Kerala.

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