The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has assessed that conditions are favourable for the South-West monsoon to enter South Kerala and the North-Eastern States on May 30-31.
It has also forecast the possibility of above-normal rainfall for the first two weeks over the extreme South Peninsula and parts of the North-Eastern States.
The monsoon has two arms, approaching the coast via the Arabian Sea (onset over Kerala) and the Bay of Bengal (the North-Eastern States). The two onsets are known to coincide, though not very often. In this manner, seasonal rains are expected to cover the North-Eastern States of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura even as the monsoon breaks along the Kerala coast.
The IMD on Friday said that the monsoon has advanced into parts of the Comorin area, and South-West and adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal. The entire Maldives atolls, parts of the South Arabian Sea, the Comorin area and South Kerala are the regions that the monsoon would cover before precipitating over the South-West coast of mainland India.
The prevailing low-pressure area over South-East and adjoining Central Bay will help it to advance to even more parts of the South-West and East-Central Bay of Bengal over the next week or so.
Depression on horizon Meanwhile, an extended outlook by the IMD said that the ‘low’ will become more ‘marked’ during the next three days and could become a monsoon depression.
In its extended outlook, the IMD said that the overall rainfall activity over extreme South Peninsular India, East and adjoining North-East India will be above normal from May 25 to 31.
During the second week, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity is likely to occur over Kerala, Karnataka, the North-Eastern States and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Overall precipitation is likely to be above normal over parts of South Peninsular India, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and the North-Eastern States during the second week as well.