The monsoon is now entering an intensive phase across North India, riding on the back of a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal that briefly intensified one round yesterday.

The 'low' is now located over the North Odisha coast and adjoining Jharkhand and is expected to travel west-northwest across East, Central and North-West India over the rest of the week.

Heavy rain forecast

It would drop heavy rain along the path, and scale up its intensity as it interacts with a band of opposing westerly flows from around Gujarat and the adjoining North Arabian Sea.

This would rapidly expand the reach of monsoon over Central and most of adjoining North-West India during the rest of the week. The rains have been delayed in Central India for more than a week now.

The enhanced rain phase could help make good the delay it was forced into, after two predecessor 'low's had lost their way and skirted India to land over Bangladesh.

In fact, the movement of the current 'low' across Central and North-West India would be slow and steady in copybook style, ensuring well-distributed rain across the region.

This would leave enough time for the Bay of Bengal to take a deep breath, and conjure up another 'low' by June 30 to sustain the active monsoon conditions early into July.

Will it or won't it?

July is the rainiest month of the four monsoon months and August, the second rainiest. The crucial question that begs a question is if, when, and for how long the monsoon decides to go into a 'break.'

The 'break phase' is inevitable after the monsoon spends out its onset phase all over the country, and is known to happen in July or August.

This is a period when rains shut out over the West Coast and most of the country except over the foothills of the Himalayas, parts of the North-Eastern States, and the East Coast, including Tamil Nadu.

A familiar weather tracker featured by the US Climate Prediction Centre ventured to suggest that this could materialise later into July when the rain belt retreats to the Himalayan foothills.

Confined in this manner to the foothills, the rains can however be heavy to very heavy over a vulnerable geography along the North-East, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

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