India Met Department (IMD) has officially set up a watch for a long-awaited low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal, which would help propel the monsoon into Central and North-West India.

The IMD expected the 'low' to show up over the North-West Bay of Bengal, safe at an arm's length away from the 'vulnerable' waters off the Bangladesh coast, over the next two days.

Significant development

A preparatory circulation has been lying in wait over the area that is closer to the North Andhra Pradesh-South Odisha coast. This would descend to lower heights to set up the 'low.' The development assumes significance given the delay of monsoon onset over Central India and parts of North-West India, even if these areas received surplus showers in the pre-monsoon season.

The monsoon was delayed mainly because two predecessor 'low's in the Bay had gone astray in the Bay and darted into Bangladesh, taking the belt of heavy rain along with it. Given its proximity to Bangladesh, India's North-Eastern States were able to share the spoils, helping themselves to a comfortable position early into the season, unlike in the previous years. But the monsoon clouds had given the miss to mos t of East, Central, North-West and West India where rains have been delayed by more than a week now.

Monsoon advances

It is against this background that the Met sees the possibility of the 'low' evolving in the Bay at a safe distance away from the Bangladesh coast where its predecessors had strayed into. Both the Arabian Sea and the Bay are in a churn in anticipation, which saw the monsoon advance into parts of Saurashtra, East Gujarat, West and East Madhya Pradesh by this afternoon.

The northern limit of the monsoon now links Dwarka, Vallabh Vidyanagar, Khandwa, Betul, Mandla and Patna, cutting across Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh and covering most of Bihar. The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts sees the monsoon entering into its most intensive phase, especially over Konkan, Mumbai, Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh.

This is based on a scenario of 'frenzied activity' being sparked by a peer circulation off Gujarat (over the Arabian Sea), likely throwing itself into the ring during the course of the week. If this were to happen, monsoon would send itself to a cruise mode over North India powered by 'twin-engines' in the Arabian Sea and the Bay with an intensity unmatched till date during this season.

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