Will Amit Shah do an Uttar Pradesh in Kerala? The BJP leaders in the State, who could not secure a seat in the Assembly or Lok Sabha for the party all these years, are hoping that Shah’s success-at-any-cost strategy will help them reap a good harvest in the local bodies elections next year and the Assembly polls in 2016.
The BJP President’s high-profile two-day visit, his announcement that Kerala would be one of his focus States and his ‘action plan’ for Kerala have revved up the faction-ridden party. Just before Shah’s visit, RSS chief Mohan Bhagat had been here for five days fine-tuning the Sangh, which has the largest number of sakhas in Kerala and which has made deep inroads into the rural areas in recent years. Tuesday’s Statewide hartal, to protest the murder of an RSS activist, is an expression of the new assertiveness of the BJP after Shah’s visit.
A senior BJP leader who attended leaders’ meetings with Shah at Thiruvananthapuram told Business Line that Shah was fully result-oriented in his approach to the party’s electoral future. “Shah told us that Kerala and West Bengal would be his focus States,” the leader, who did not want to be identified by name, said. “I am sure he will do in these two States what he did in UP in the recent Lok Sabha elections.” (His strategy, though controversial, had helped the BJP secure 72 of the 80 seats in UP.)
Shah has asked the Kerala leaders to build up the party from the booth level and to increase the number of booth committees from the current 5000 to 20,000 in a year. Shah instructed them to make next year’s local bodies elections as the BJP’s moment of arrival. Capturing the Thiruvananthapuram municipal corporation should be the first goal (The BJP was No. 2 in the Lok Sabha election). However, he has given no indication of a change of guard to end the infighting in the State unit.
Shah had rejected the idea that the BJP form a political front in the State on the lines of the UDF and LDF, sources said. He had wanted the BJP to stand on its own and contest the elections with the sole aim of winning, and not just to be an also-ran. The party’s action plan in the coming months would be geared to this aim.
MODI WAVE MISSES KERALA
In spite of all the right conditions, the BJP is yet to arrive electorally in Kerala. While the `Modi wave’ hit almost all States in the Lok Sabha election, the party couldn’t secure a single seat. The Sangh Parivar has been trying its best to create a Hindu wave with its temple-centered activities. Most temples and shrines are being renovated; temple festivals are resurrected; and old rituals are reinvented. Several ceremonies and festivities — such as Vinayak Chathurthi and Raakhi Bandhan — which until recently had been alien to Kerala, have made surprise appearances. The middle class has been frequently reminded of its Hindu legacy.
But all this support by the RSS has not so far given the BJP the electoral dividends it desires. Kerala’s demography, with Muslims and Christians making up 45 per cent of the population, is viewed as the main reason. The LDF-or-UDF political preference of the voters and the deep factionalism within the party are among other factors. BJP sources hinted that Shah’s action plan might address these three main issues.
But, will the action plan accelerate the ongoing communal polarisation is anybody’s guess.