Poll predictions in Andhra Pradesh are clouded by the emergence of new parties, the lack of clarity on alliances and the impact of the bifurcation issue.
It has become commonplace to describe the 2014 election as the most significant since 1977, but this is easily the most extraordinary election that Andhra Pradesh has witnessed since it was formed in 1956. It will elect its MPs (42 of them) and its legislators (294) as a unified State and then break up into Telangana and Andhra Pradesh on June 2.
This raises the question — are we witnessing two elections in the guise of one? And how is this going to impact the way the State votes?
This election could also be a departure in the manner the State has traditionally voted. A stronghold of the Congress since 1983, the dramatic rise of rise of Telugu superstar NT Rama Rao’s TDP in 1983 went on to create a duopoly, with power changing hands between the two parties.
Cong, TDP in periphery This election throws up tantalising possibilities and the results are extremely unpredictable at this juncture, to say the very least. This is because the two main parties — the Congress and the TDP — have been pushed to the sidelines. The former, which hoped to cash in on the goodwill factor by creating Telangana, finds itself in a tricky situation.
It stares at a rout in residual Andhra Pradesh, thanks to the role it played in bifurcation. Worse, its prospects in Telangana have been dampened with its alliance hopes with the TRS dashed. The party finds its leaders leaving it for the TDP or the YSR CP.
The TDP, which rode to power on the slogan of ‘Telugu atmagauravam ’ (self respect for Telugus) and popularity of NTR, seems to have lost steam. The lack of clarity on its position on Telangana — where the party seemed to be playing it both ways — and where it stands with respect to alliances have threatened to marginalise it in both the regions.
In residual AP, the TDP has to take on at least five opponents, while in Telangana it stands a distant third now. The big question is whether it will succeed in cobbling an alliance with the BJP and cash in by projecting Naidu’s experience in administration and Narendra Modi’s popularity.
The TRS, which has emerged as a force since 2004, has achieved its major objective — the creation of a separate State. Its decision not to merge with the Congress, and eventually dump it as an alliance partner, were linked to perceptions of the latter’s unpopularity.
Whether the Congress can impress on Telangana’s voters that it was its government that was responsible for the bifurcation and upstage the TRS is a big question mark. In this region, the TDP and the BJP have an uphill battle; as for Hyderabad, it remains a bastion of the Majlis Party.
Political vacuum In the political vacuum created by the shrinking of the main political players in the Seemandhra region, which is also known for entrepreneurship, have emerged new parties. One is the Jai Samaikyandhra Party floated by f ormer Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy along with five suspended MPs and a few legislators. Another is the Jana Sena (People’s Army), launched by ‘Power Star’ Pawan Kalyan, brother of superstar and Congress MP Chiranjeevi.
But it is the YSR Congress Party (YSR CP), led by YS Jaganmohan Reddy, son of former Chief Minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy, that has the greatest hold in the region, going by poll surveys as well as popular perception.
The party has only 15 legislators and two MPs but enjoys considerable goodwill.
The goodwill comes from the pro-poor, populist schemes such as free medical care (Arogyasri), housing and education implemented by YSR.
However, Jagan himself is facing a barrage of investigations over alleged scams. It remains to be seen whether he can exploit the goodwill and gain from the split in the votes given the proliferation of parties.
Lynchpin State In the past two decades, the State has emerged as the pivot in holding coalition governments at the Centre in power.
First, the N Chandrababu-headed TDP held together the motley crew of 18 parties that formed the United Front coalition and, more significantly, the BJP-led NDA government during 1996-2004.
Then, Congress strongman YSR not only dethroned Naidu, but provided 29 and 33 MPs to ensure that the Manmohan Singh government survived two terms.
It remains unclear whether Andhra Pradesh will be a pivotal player on the national front this time. The overall picture is confusing given the lack of clarity on alliances and the possibility the voting may be heavily influenced by a new issue — bifurcation.
But with the emergence of new parties and with film stars and industrialists jumping into the fray, this poll promises to be like no other the State — even the nation — has ever known.