The Kathmandu summit of the South Asia Climate Outlook Forum (Sascof-3) has indicated that monsoon rainfall over South Asia as a whole is likely to be normal this year.
The region of South Asia, for purposes of the forecast, includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Maldives and Sri Lanka.
DEFICIENT RAIN
Entire Pakistan, adjoining western fringes of Rajasthan and almost entire western Jammu and Kashmir are likely to receive deficient rainfall.
Nepal, adjoining areas of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh and Bhutan will likely receive surplus rainfall. Most of mainland India will see normal rain panning out.
But, worryingly, there are areas in the South which are forecast to witness deficiencies, Sascof-3 projections indicate.
These include entire Kerala, most of Tamil Nadu, and South Interior Karnataka. Both Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands also fall in the same category.
CONTRASTING OUTLOOK
A similar scenario would pan out in Sri Lanka also, while Maldives would be an exception with normal rain during the season.
The deficient rain forecast for South India is in direct contrast to those coming out from international agencies which have indicated normal rainfall for these very areas.
Even assuming a know monsoon-unfriendly phase of Indian Ocean Dipole event pans out, the most likely areas to be hit are Northwest and East India, according to Japanese scientists.
Both Kerala and Tamil Nadu had witnessed failed monsoon last year, and any further dryness coming into the region could spell disaster for crops and water availability situation.
UNCERTAIN ELEMENT
The Sascof-3 statement said that a consensus outlook for the 2013 southwest monsoon rainfall over South Asia was developed, through an expert assessment of available indications.
The outlook was prepared based on the various prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models.
It recognised that there is uncertainty partly because of spring-time predictability limit and partly due to likely absence of any strong forcing from the Pacific or the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season.
The consensus outlook indicated that rainfall for South Asia and June-September season as a whole will most likely be within the normal range with a slight tendency towards the higher side of the normal range.