A direct contest between Modi, Kejriwal

The announcement of Assembly elections in Delhi came on Monday with the prospect of a direct contest between the BJP, steered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the AAP, led by its chief Arvind Kejriwal.

The Congress went through the motion of selecting candidates as former Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit further dampened the morale of the party cadre by her declaration that they may end up supporting the AAP in case of another hung House.

Although the campaign is yet to pick up in Delhi, Modi has already held a public rally, where his barbs at the AAP helped people understand who the Prime Minister thinks is the BJP’s main rival in the Capital.

While he did not name Kejriwal, Modi’s comments were largely understood to have been directed at the AAP leader.

“Have you ever seen a political leader calling himself an anarchist? Join the naxals if that is the case. Naxalism cannot be brought to Delhi. Delhi can’t be surrendered to anarchy,” the PM said.

This was clearly a response to Kejriwal calling himself an anarchist about a year back.

The AAP was quick with its response. Soon after the rally on Saturday, Kejriwal quipped at a hurriedly convened press conference: “They have no positive agenda. They are rattled ahead of the elections. With every election they make a new promise. Modi says it has taken him seven months to eradicate corruption from the top. But when will you reach the bottom?”

From the pitch of Modi’s rally, it was clear that the BJP will follow the strategy it adopted in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir. There will be no projection of any chief ministerial candidate and the party will ride on Modi’s popularity.

The downside for the BJP is factionalism in its State unit, a factor that is largely perceived to be a problem in the selection of candidates.

The party has not declared any candidate yet. However, these local issues are expected to be ironed out with the weight of Modi’s charisma and party president Amit Shah’s efficiency.

The latter has already held two meetings with the State unit, including one where even office-bearers in the block levels were present.

Sources said the message from Shah was to concentrate on organising booth level workers, and to work collectively. The star campaigner in Delhi, as everywhere else, would be the PM.

The AAP, at the same time, is still suffering from the effect of Kejriwal’s hasty resignation after a 49-day tenure as Chief Minister last year.

It lost its middle-class support to Modi in the Lok Sabha elections and that group of voters is still expected to stay with the BJP. What works for the AAP in this election is the consolidation of poor, Muslim and lower-middle-class voters, who traditionally opted for the Congress.

The Congress has not yet recovered from its humiliating defeat after three consecutive terms as the ruling party in the elections held in December 2013. It was reduced to a mere eight seats in the Assembly with the BJP securing 31 and AAP 28 seats. Subsequently, the Congress lost all the seven seats in Delhi in the Lok Sabha elections.

While the party is putting up a brave front, asking some of its MPs to contest and getting the popular Ajay Maken to lead the campaign, it does not seem to have recovered much ground in Delhi.

In the Capital, it will remain a direct fight between the BJP and the AAP.