Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah could either be history, or end up creating it, a political analyst remarked recently. In fact, this could also be true of other main contenders for the top job, the BJP’s BS Yeddyurappa and JD(S)’s HD Kumaraswamy.

Never before has it been so difficult to predict the winner of an Assembly election in Karnataka. In 2013, it was evident that the BJP and the JD(S) would hand over power to the Congress. In the polls aaaaprior to that, it was even easier as then chief minister SM Krishna, then of the Congress, had endeared himself to the urban voter, but in doing so alienated the rural masses.

Charges that did not stick

No such issue is discernible in this election. There are no major corruption charges against Siddaramaiah or against any of his ministerial colleagues. A tax raid at the residence of one of minister DK Shivkumar did not create any buzz either.

The Opposition, surprisingly, did make the murder of journalist Gauri Lankesh an election issue. Her killers still remain at large even though the Congress’ State Working President, Dinesh Gundu Rao, told BusinessLine that he expected the killers to be rounded up before the elections.

The alleged suicide of an IAS officer and a top police official haven’t dented Siddaramaiah’s image, though Prime Minister Narendra Modi did bring up the issue during one of his rallies.

State vs Central leaders

Siddaramaiah is contesting from two constituencies — Chamundeshwari and Badami — and while analysts predict that he will surely win one of the two, it is hard to predict which.

Rahul Gandhi deliberately took a backseat during electioneering, allowing Siddaramaiah to hog the limelight, while Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah chose to do the heavy-lifting in a campaign that saw Yeddyurappa being relegated to the sidelines.

Reacting to criticism that the election was a Siddaramaiah-versus-Modi affair, the former Union finance minister and senior Congress leader, P Chidambaram, said it was a deliberate projection of the BJP, but the voters will have to finally decide if they prefer the incumbent to Yeddyurappa.

The Lingayat issue

While the Siddaramaiah government’s decision to accord religion status to the Lingayat-Veerashaiva community was seen as a gamble, a call by the Lingayat Mahasabha to vote for the Congress could help the party to some extent.

Mahadev Prasad, a political analyst and the author of the yet-to-be-released book on Lingayats, told BusinessLine that the election campaign by all the three main parties saw their respective leaders making personal allegations against each other. “Instead of fighting the elections on issues, leaders like Modi and Siddaramaiah were guilty of making personal attacks against each other, which does not augur well for democracy.”

Even though the BJP tried hard to buttonhole Siddaramaiah, the party’s leaders could not make any allegation stick. According to a political analyst, the BJP should have focused more on what the party could do for the State than on making “baseless” allegations against the Congress.

“Calling Bengaluru a sin city and claiming that the Congress had given Ballary a bad name is not going to help the BJP win seats,” she said.

A saffron redemption?

However, what cannot be denied is that the last-minute blitzkrieg by top BJP leaders, including Modi and Shah has left a big impact on its prospects.

“The BJP was trailing the Congress till a week ago, but this trend has been reversed now,” Prasad said. If BJP fails to form the next government, it could also see the end of Yeddyurappa’s political career, unless the party decides to accommodate him in the Union Cabinet.

As far as the JD (S) is concerned, its chances of turning out to be a kingmaker have improved considerably because it is seen in better light than before. Its leader, former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy has repeatedly told voters that if they want to see him live a long life, then they should vote for his party.

It just goes to show that the party is fighting for its survival here.

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