India Met Department (IMD has declared the onset of the South-West monsoon over Kerala this morning, three days ahead of the normal and exactly as it had forecast a few days ago.

The monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of southeast Arabian Sea, Comorin–Maldives,  entire Lakshadweep, most parts of Kerala and some parts of Tamil Nadu.

Its northern limit passed through Kannur, Coimbatore, Kodaikanal and  Tuticorin, the IMD said. Widespread rainfall has occurred over Kerala during the past four days.

A well-marked low-pressure area lies over South-East and adjoining East-Central Arabian Sea, off North Kerala- Karnataka coasts.

Another well-marked 'low' lies over East-Central and adjoining North-East Bay of Bengal. It is likely to concentrate into a depression during next 12 hours.

Conditions are favourable for further advance of the monsoon into some parts of central Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Kerala, some parts of Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, some more parts of East-Central and North-East Bay of Bengal, and some parts of the North-Eastern states during next two days.

LOW PRESSURE

Of the the two 'well-marked 'low-pressure areas in the seas, the one over the East-Central Bay of Bengal appears to have immediate prospects of further evolution.

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre located it to 795 km to the South-South-East of Kolkata, India, but the system was likely headed for North Myanmar over the next 24 hours.

It raised to 'medium' the chances of intensification of the system, with very warm seas and a low vertical wind shear likely aiding the transformation.

But it assessed the window was too short to expect it to grow beyond the strength of a depression, though massive clouding is present over two-thirds of the Bay basin.

Flights headed for Bangkok and other destinations in the South-East were shown steering clear of the thunderheads embedded in the clouds, the equivalent of landmines.

These included Emirates (Dubai-Bangkok); Thai Smile (Jaipur-Bangkok); and in the opposite direction, Qatar Airways (Bangkok-Doha); UPS (Bangkok-Mumbai); and Oman Air (Bangkok-Muscat).

On the other side, the well-marked 'low' over the South-East Arabian Sea off the Kerala-Karnataka coasts persists, with a likely major role in the monsoon onset dynamics.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY

It has not moved from the vantage position it had reached yesterday, with most of the convection being concentrated off the coast from Kozhikode in Kerala to Panaji in Goa.

Cloudy conditions are being reported at the international airports at Goa and Kozhikode as well as the Mangaluru airport located in between.

Here too, a number of domestic and international flights were shown ducking the active thunderheads rising off the coast as they operated to their North and South.

Of these included Air India Express (Doha-Kochi); Qatar Airways (Doha-Auckland); Gulf Air (Bahrain-Thiruvananthapuram); and Qatar Airways (Bahrain-Thiruvananthapuram).

None of the global models saw any prospects of intensification of this well-marked 'low' though some suspect that it may start moving away from the coast with time.

Related Topics