Exit Polls predict defeat for NDA in Bihar

Exit polls soon after the third and final round of polling got over in Bihar on Saturday showed a clear edge for the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) over the Nitish Kumar-BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with some pollsters predicting a wave in favour of the Opposition’s chief ministerial candidate Tejaswi Yadav.

Two polls – by India Today Aaj Tak/Axis My India and CNN TV18/Today’s Chanakya – predicted a clear majority for the opposition alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) which contested the Assembly elections with Congress and Left Parties. The India Today pollster, Pradip Gupta of Axis-My India said that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar faced strong anti-incumbency and Tejaswi Yadav of the RJD was able to cash in on the young and aspirational vote. The India Today poll gave 138-168 seats to the opposition alliance or Mahagathbandhan (MGB), way above the majority mark of 122 seats in the 243-member assembly. Today’s Chanakya which conducted the poll on behalf of CNN TV18 also estimated the MGB’s seats to be between 169-191, indicating a wave in favour of the opposition.

Two other polls, one by Times Now/C-Voter and the other by ABP/C-Voter, showed the contest to be much closer and predicted a tight race.

The TimesNow poll showed the ruling NDA to be getting 116 seats while the MGB was predicted to be getting 120 seats. Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) failed to make any headway according to this poll which predicted only 1 seat for this party.

In the ABP/C-Voter poll, the NDA was projected to be getting between 104-128 seats while the opposition MGB was predicted to get 108-131 seats.

Almost all the polls showed the Chirag Paswan-led LJP to be a nonstarter as a solo player in the elections. Chirag Paswan had split from the NDA and contested the election on his own, largely as part of the strategy to cut into JD(U)’s votes.