The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is upbeat about the second phase of polling that concluded in 11 more seats in Uttar Pradesh on Thursday. But the picture did not seem so rosy in Bihar.

In the 11 largely Muslim-dominated seats in Uttar Pradesh where ballots were cast on Thursday, the voter turnout was higher than in 2009 — from 55.09 per cent in the last Lok Sabha elections to 62.52 per cent this time. The BJP claimed a consolidation of support for its Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.

“This is a one-sided election,” BJP’s General Secretary and UP in-charge, Amit Shah, told Business Line . “In the first phase, of the 10 seats polled, the BJP is winning all ten. In the phase conducted yesterday, we are winning eight out of 11 seats.”

The BJP’s argument is that the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the traditionally strong political parties in the region stretching from Delhi in seats such as Bulanshehr, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Nagina and Baghpat, are losing their base vote to the BJP.

The BJP claims the Jats in the case of Ajit Singh-led RLD and the Dalits in the case of Mayawati’s BSP, have moved towards them this time. This is largely being attributed to the communal riots that took place in Muzaffarnagar and Shamli last year.

Muslim vote Furthermore, the Muslim vote is not a homogenised block. In the Muslim-concentrated seats such as Moradabad and Rampur, which have very rarely been won by the BJP, the SP, the BSP as well as the Congress, have fielded Muslim candidates. The community vote, therefore, is getting split giving the BJP a chance to wrest seats where Muslim concentration is more than 40 per cent.

“In Moradabad, the contest is between Haji Yaqub Qureshi of the BSP and the BJP. But the SP and the Congress too have Muslim candidates. There will be some split in the community vote,” said Mohd. Shamshad Hussain, an activist who has worked in the rehabilitation camps after the riots forced people to leave their villages in Muzaffarnagar.

A classic case of the split in traditional bastions is Baghpat, where the RLD chief Ajit Singh faces a tough contest from Satyapal Singh of the BJP. “We believe Ajit Singh will eventually prevail, but the very fact that the BJP is in contest in seats like Rampur, Moradabad and Baghpat shows how well the party is doing this time,” said a BJP leader from western UP.

In Bihar, where the polling percentage was 39.30 per cent to 54 per cent in the seven constituencies where elections were held on Thursday, the JD(U) seemed to struggle to retain the five seats it currently holds. In 2009, the JD(U) had emerged victorious in Munger, Nalanda, Pataliputra, Arrah and Jahanabad.

By the party’s own internal assessment, it is likely to be in the third position in these seven constituencies. “The fight is between the RJD and the BJP here,” a top JD(U) leader said.

The BJP and the RJD had won one seat each — Patna Sahib and Buxar — in 2009. But this time round, the RJD’s hopes have been raised, owing to the high polling percentage among the Muslims and the Yadavs. Reports from the State say that there was aggressive voting among both the groups. “If there was a Modi wave, it should have been reflected in the voting percentage at least in the cities. It’s a wave for a secular India,” RJD spokesperson Mrityunjay Tiwari said.

Buxar, where the turnout was about 57 per cent , political workers across the parties said Yadav and Muslim votes were polled much more than the upper caste votes. In Pataliputra, where Lalu Prasad’s daughter Misa Bharati is the RJD candidate, the party was worried of a turnout of over 60 per cent which was expected to harm her chances. But the polling percentage has excited party workers. “In Pataliputra it will be a cakewalk for us,” Tiwari said.

Altogetherit was a mixed bag in the Hindi heartland. While the BJP has done well in the first two rounds of polling, the party is expecting a tough contest in the coming rounds, especially in Central UP where candidate selection has been a cause of worry for the party.

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