BJP lags as Nitish sounds poll bugle in Bihar

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar was the first off the block in setting the poll agenda in the State, leaving rival BJP to follow in his wake with what seems like a defensive strategy.

Nitish launched his door-to-door campaign programme, called Har Ghar Dastak, on Thursday. The launch signified a certain cohesiveness in the Janata alliance’s strategy which entails the projection of Nitish — with his relatively unblemished track record — as chief ministerial candidate, as well as an effort to consolidate the backward caste and Muslim votes.

In all likelihood, the BJP will not project any chief ministerial candidate and depend on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity to counter Nitish’s campaign. This is aimed at diffusing the competition among several aspirants for the CM’s post not just within the BJP but even among its allies, which now include former Bihar CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party leader and Lok Sabha MP Upendra Kushwaha, and Union Minister and Lok Janshakti Party leader Ram Vilas Paswan.

So, while former Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi remains the BJP’s favourite for the top job if it wins in Bihar, he is almost certainly not going to be projected in the run-up to the campaign.

It is a critical contrast which makes the BJP seem rudderless in the State — a fact that Nitish and his ally Lalu Prasad fully intend to capitalise on by repeatedly demanding to know who will lead the NDA in case of a victory in Bihar.

Secondly, what is increasingly being witnessed in the Hindi heartland is the winner is invariably someone who benefits from a consolidation of the “non-aligned” castes. For instance, castes that have not clearly aligned with any one leader — as is the case with Yadavs with Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu, or Jatavs with Mayawati — tend to converge around the leader who holds the hope factor.

This happened in the last Lok Sabha elections with Narendra Modi, who weaned away the SCs with the exception of Jatavs from Mayawati and OBCs with the exception of Yadavs from Mulayam. It was also true of Nitish and Akhilesh Yadav’s victories in earlier Assembly elections in Bihar and UP respectively.

Nitish is clearly working towards harvesting the “hope factor” as the only projected CM candidate with his seemingly impressive performance record.

The BJP plans to dent this campaign by harping on “Return to Jungle Raj II”, a reference to RJD leader Lalu’s dismal record as CM. But the BJP’s campaign is yet to commence while Nitish has already hit the streets with Har Ghar Dastak.

Another critical element of the contrasting strategies of the two main rivals is the relative strength of their poll strategists. The Janata alliance has past-masters such as Nitish, Lalu and Sharad Yadav, with a clear second rung of seasoned leaders devoted full time to electioneering in Bihar.

In contrast, BJP president Amit Shah is an outsider to the State even if he is holding regular meetings at the party headquarters and is in constant touch with leaders in the field.

There are others such as RSS strongman and BJP joint general secretary Soudan Singh, who are camping in the poll-bound State. Supervising the operations is Rajya Sabha MP and party general secretary Bhupendra Yadav along with Union Ministers Ananth Kumar and Dharmendra Pradhan, none of whom belong to Bihar.

Although all ministers from the State in the Union Cabinet — Ravi Shankar Prasad, Rajiv Pratap Rudy, Radha Mohan Singh and Giriraj Singh — have also been roped in for poll preparations, they are constrained to do it over and above their ministerial duties.

The BJP believes that infighting in the Janata alliance, especially at the time of ticket distribution, will help its cause.

That, in itself, sounds like depending on the rivals to deliver a victory.