An observer and political strategist for a number of past elections, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Thursday predicted a clear majority for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh owing to a massive expansion in its social base.

He attributed the social expansion of the BJP, hitherto classified as a Brahmin-Bania party, to the near “mutiny and rebellion” in the traditional social base of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

Without specifically naming the communities, the Finance Minister indicated that OBC groups other than Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s own caste, and Scheduled Caste communities other than BSP Chief Mayawati’s caste of Chamars/Jatavs have migrated to the BJP.

“The BJP is headed for a clear majority because there is mutiny in the social support base of the two main parties. The voter is rebelling against the discrimination and bias inherent in the political model adopted by them for nearly three decades,” he said. “It has become clear to the voter that the government structure and State welfare will be targeted towards only one specific community and the rest will be discriminated against,” said Jaitley while addressing a press conference in Varanasi.

The Finance Minister attributed the “migration” of the non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits towards the BJP to the “rebellion” of these communities against blatant favouritism towards their own caste by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati over the years.

Creating divisions

The BJP, at the same time, has spent years devising a strategy to create precisely this kind of division among OBCs and Dalits.

It has chipped at the BSP’s and SP’s social support structure by promoting and making alliances with smaller community-based outfits such as the Apna Dal, which represents the Kurmis, and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, which represents the Rajbhar community among the OBCs. Besides this conscious social engineering, the Finance Minister said another factor helping the BJP is the blatant harbouring of criminals by the SP and the BSP. The reference is to Muslim dons such as Mukhtar Ansari, a murder accused whose Quomi Ekta Dal has merged with the BSP. What Jaitley implied was that the popular reaction to promotion of these elements will help the BJP.

“Criminal elements have been given precedence. The SP has done it over the years and the BSP too has shown no allergy towards them. There is popular anger against this kind of politics,” said the Finance Minister.

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