The spirited campaigning for the three-cornered fight in the by-election to the Aruvikkara Assembly constituency here ends this evening.
The ruling Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala and the Opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF) have gone all out in what is seen as a prestigious fight and a sampler of what is to come early next year when the entire state goes to the polls.
BJP UPSETS
The entry of veteran O Rajagopal of the BJP seems to have upset the calculations of both fronts. The party’s capability to deliver late but effective rallies in the last mile are bothering them no end.
While the BJP candidate garnered 7,694 votes in the last Assembly elections, it managed to almost double it in the Lok Sabha elections. The expectation is that this could go up to 20,000 this time.
And this could prove crucial to the arithmetic. There are an estimated 1.80 lakh eligible votes in the constituency left vacant by the demise of G Karthikeyan, Speaker of the Assembly. He had won here by a margin of 10,674 over a weak candidate.
Observers expect at least 1.35 lakh of the 1.80 lakh eligible to cast their franchise this time. This makes total-votes-polled of 50,000 as the threshold level for a candidate to make a serious bid.
CANDIDATE PROFILE
The crucial question is who will. The UDF is fielding Karthikeyan’s young son K Sabarinathan, who quit a promising career with the Tatas to fancy his electoral chances. And the UDF is expecting more than the sympathy vote here, the party’s campaign managers make pains to assert.
The LDF has chosen former minister and speaker M Vijayakumar, son of the soil just as Sabarinathan is. But there ends the comparison. Vijayakumar has had a long and distinguished track record in public life, not to speak of his constant presence in the district of Thiruvananthapuram.
Sabarinathan may be a novice but age, effervescence, and his ability to communicate has surprised pollsters, and have combined to lend him the X-factor. This personal attribute could well count for much, if not more than the ‘sympathy factor’ that the UDF is trying to cash in on.
As for Rajagopal, he may not belong to the district but has represented the state as Minister of State for Railways in the Vajpayee government.
And he has delivered more for the railway infrastructure in Thiruvananthapuram than any of his counterparts even to this day. He has also sought to downplay his ‘outsider’ image by working up a busy schedule ensuring his presence in the city.
CAMPAIGN DYNAMICS
The UDF campaign got off to a good start, but both the LDF and the BJP have managed to catch up.
Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, Pradesh Congress Committee President VM Sudheeran, and senior leader AK Antony have been in the vanguard of the UDF campaign.
It has used projects such as the Vizhinjam port, Kochi Metro, and the Kannur airport to the hilt, citing them as symbols of the government’s achievements even while facing flak on the solar scam and the bar bribe cases.
Nonagenarian VS Achuthanandan has defied his age to lead an electrifying campaign, drawing massive crowds that are only too willing to eat out his hands whenever he chooses to dish out something against his rivals in his inimitable style.
The well-oiled machinery of the CPI (M) has worked in no small measure to ensure the apparent success of his campaign.
The BJP and the larger Sangh Parivar too have taken care not to leave any stone unturned with the fresh face of actor and party apologist Suresh Gopi giving it the finer edge.