As angry Dalits launched a 380-km-long padyatra from Ahmedabad to Una on Friday, an embattled BJP anointed Gujarat BJP President Vijay Rupani to succeed outgoing Chief Minister Anandiben Patel, hoping that the Jain leader from Rajkot would rework the frayed social engineering formulations and cobble together winning numbers in the Assembly elections next year.

To placate the agitating Patels, the party also elevated Health Minister Nitin Patel as the Deputy Chief Minister. Rupani, 60, will be the 16th CM of Gujarat.

The new BJP government will take oath on Sunday, in the State Capital.

After a prolonged BJP Legislature Party meeting, the names of the new CM and Deputy CM were announced by central BJP observer Union Minister Nitin Gadkari in presence of BJP President Amit Shah — himself seen as a front-runner until two days ago — and other leaders. Rupani is a staunch supporter of Shah and the only leader to be out of the ‘one-man, one-post’ norm: he is also the Transport Minister.

The Jain community constitutes only 1 per cent of the State’s population.

Never stood a chance

Nitin Patel, number-two in the outgoing Ministry, who was widely tipped to step into Anandiben’s shoes, but could not make the final cut for a second time since May 2014. In fact, a puja was being held at his residence when the meeting was on, sweets were being distributed to the accompaniment of drums and the bursting of crackers, and his wife in ‘exclusive’ interviews to numerous TV news channels threw indications about his ‘formal election’. In separate TV interviews, Patel had even displayed his readiness to accept the “challenges” of Chief Ministership and even detailed his plans!

The Kadva Patel leader did not stand much of a chance: he had virtually failed to douse the Patidar fire, and was already being targeted by the angry Patels — they had even attacked his office at Kadi in Mehsana district — a core constituency of the BJP.

Beset by problems

The ruling BJP has, since 2015, been battling multiple ‘uprisings’ from its traditional support base that had kept it in power since 1995. Massive agitations by the Patels, the OBCs, and the Dalits have now have pulverised the party since July 2015 when the Hardik Patel-led Patidars’ agitation began. The Una incident of July 11 came as the last straw that broke the camel’s back. The BJP ‘high command’ virtually gave marching orders to Anandiben, paving the way for a new leader — but also ensured that her bête noire, Amit Shah, did not become the next CM. The BJP supremo, however, managed to have his way in getting Rupani anointed as the new CM.

In Gujarat’s powerful Patel constellation, the Leuva Patels are in a majority, followed by the Kadvas; the two other smaller Patel groups are the Chaudharys and Anjanas. Together, the Patels comprise about 14-15 per cent of the population; on the other hand, the Dalits constitute 7-8 per cent of the State’s electorate, and the OBCs comprise nearly 40 per cent.

Power shift to Saurashtra?

Both Anandiben and Nitin Patel are from the same Mehsana district in northern Gujarat, as are Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah. Thus, the Gujarat BJP has been controlled by the Mehsana leaders since 2001. It remains to be seen whether, with Vijay Rupani as the new CM, the power base of the ruling party would shift to Saurashtra, and to what extent.

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