BJP president Amit Shah’s targeted rallies at Ramban and Banihal in the Jammu region — scheduled for Thursday — give an indication of the ruling party’s strategy and growing ambitions in the upcoming Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir.

While party workers travelling in the State talk excitedly of the Valley throwing up “surprises” this time, the more realistic assessment in the BJP’s “Mission 44” for J&K is the party’s complete consolidation in the Jammu region.

Of the 87-member State Assembly, the Valley takes up 46 seats, Jammu 37 and Ladakh four. In the recent Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won from Ladakh, Jammu as well as Udhampur while the Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP) swept Baramulla, Srinagar and Anantnag.

The Assembly-wise distribution of votes in the Lok Sabha polls reveals that the PDP was leading in as many as 41 Assembly constituencies. In the 2008 Assembly elections, the National Conference won 28 seats, the PDP 21 and the Congress 17. The BJP managed to win just 11 seats at that time.

This time, the focus is to consolidate not just those 21 seats in Jammu where the Hindus dominate but the 15 other Muslim-dominated seats in the Pir Panjal, Chanab and Jammu-Kathua belt in the Jammu region.

The strategy is similar to the one adopted in the Muslim-majority western Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha election, where the Hindu vote consolidated around the BJP while the Muslim votes got divided among three different “secular” parties.

The BJP scored on the same principle in Udhampur, where Congress heavyweight Ghulam Nabi Azad was defeated by the BJP’s Jitender Singh, who is now Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office.

“There is no reverse polarisation from the Muslim side in the Jammu region. The BJP is certainly going to gain from Hindu consolidation in that region,” said a BJP worker travelling in the region.

While the BJP may gain a seat in Ladakh as well, the story is a little different in the Valley, where the Muslims are in a majority. Except the Habbakadal seat where the BJP’s Moti Lal Kaul hopes to make the cut with about 16,000 Kashmiri Pandit votes, the party’s prospects have not improved considerably despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the Valley and appeal on the development agenda.

What helps the BJP in the Valley is the presence of smaller, one-man parties such as Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference.

Not alone

Lone has already met Modi and BJP general secretary Ram Madhav, and expressed his faith in the ruling party. Lone is contesting from North Kashmir. Similarly, Independents such as Ghulam Hasan Mir, the candidate from Gulmarg, and Haqeem Mohammad Yasin from South Kashmir have been approached by the BJP for post-poll support.

Altogether, the BJP has fielded 69 candidates in the State, of whom an overwhelming 31 are Muslims. The party certainly hopes to improve vastly over its best record of 11 seats in Jammu and Kashmir.

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