Covid-19 is “moving towards” an endemic phase in India and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has been able to isolate the XBB.1.16 sub-variant of Omicron, responsible for the current surge in infections, senior Health Ministry officials said on Wednesday.
Officials said with the virus approaching an endemic phase, cases are expected to rise over the next few days - “some 10 -12-odd days” - before subsidising.
Vaccines efficacy has also been established.
The official said, while Omicron and its sub-lineages continue to be the dominant variant, most of the assigned variants “have little or no significant transmissibility”, disease severity or immune escape.
Editorial. A robust, publicly funded health system needed
The prevalence of XBB.1.16 increased from 21.6 per cent in February this year to 35.8 per cent in March. Despite the rise, hospitalisations are expected to remain low.
“ICMR has been able to isolate the sub-variant. And vaccine efficacy studies have been done. This is an upper respiratory tract disease and hospitalisations will be low. There will be a rise in cases for some months and we are expecting that in 10–12 days, numbers will subside,” the official told businessline.
“We are moving towards an endemic stage now,” the official added pointing out that despite the increase in cases, “we are not witnessing a wave”.
In medical terms, an infection becomes endemic when the rates become static in a given geographical location, that is, the pathogen causing the disease is likely to remain in circulation without causing large outbreaks.
Also read: Need to document Covid-19 handling at local level: J Radhakrishnan
India on Wednesday reported 7,830 new coronavirus infections, the highest in over seven months, with the active case count increasing to 40,215, according to Union Health Ministry data. Daily positivity rate stood at 3.65 per cent; while the weekly positivity rate was 3.83 per cent. The death toll due to the disease has increased to 5,31,016 with 16 new fatalities being reported – two each in Delhi, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, and one each in Gujarat, Haryana, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh, and five reconciled by Kerala.
Vaccine stocks
According to ministry officials, vaccine stocks continue to be low and procurement need based. The demand for booster doses are also low. For instance, for Covovax, there is hardly any demand.
While procurement of Covid vaccines was opened up for the states, that is, states could directly place orders, not many have come forward with it. They are still reaching out to the Centre for stock replenishment. Right now, (vaccine) stocks are “spaced out between states with high Covid load and increased demand for vaccines”, an official said.
Also read: Covovax to be on CoWIN, tweets Adar Poonawalla
“The prime focus right now is to ensure coverage of booster doses to co-morbid and senior citizens,” the official added.
In fact, Adar Poonawalla’s Serum Institute has apparently restarted manufacturing of Covishield – the most popular Covid vaccine – in view of rising cases. Production of the vaccine was reportedly stopped in view of poor demand.
“Just as a precaution, at risk we have done it so that peoplehave a Covishield as a choice, if they want it,” Poonawalla was quoted by PTI on resuming manufacture of the vaccine.