The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has adversely impacted the toll collections again.
According to ICRA, despite the lack of a nationwide stringent lockdown or toll suspensions, the regional restrictions imposed in several states, along with the increase in wariness, have negatively affected the movement of peole in the past few weeks.
Road traffic had witnessed a marked improvement in H2 FY2021 after subdued traffic witnessed in the initial months of the last fiscal, post resumption of tolling from April 20, 2020.
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Rajeshwar Burla, Co-Group Head & Vice President, Corporate Ratings, ICRA, said, “With continued rise in number of Covid-19 cases in May 2021 and stringent lockdowns imposed by states to contain the infection, the de-growth in the toll collections has been much sharper in May 2021. The toll collections reduced by around 10 per cent in April 2021 over March 2021 and is estimated to decline by 25-30 per cent in May 2021 over April 2021.”
“With the fall in number of Covid-19 cases from the third week of May 2021, States are expected to relax the lockdown restrictions in a gradual manner. We expect the toll collections to ramp up from June onwards. Toll road projects are expected to witness low revenue growth in FY2022 on the back of low base and inflation-linked increase in toll rates.”
ICRA has conducted a study on toll collections data for 29 projects which are spread across 11 states over a period of 60-70 days (March 1, 2021 to May 10, 2021).
As per the study, Maharashtra is the worst hit state in India, with the lockdown restrictions having started earlier than other states due to which de-growth has been higher in April 2021.
Also read: Strong bounce back in toll road assets post Covid-19 induced shock: ICRA
The month-on-month, de-growth has increased over the month of April and May 2021 with sharper dip on weekends as some of the states have started restrictions by imposing weekend lockdowns. Although the degrowth in toll collections has been across vehicle categories, the impact has been severe on the passenger vehicles and bus categories due to strict restrictions imposed on movement of people by various states.
“Unlike the first wave, no compensation against toll revenue loss is announced by the authorities so far and is unlikely to be covered under concession agreement,” Burla added.