The well-marked low-pressure area over South-East Bay of Bengal has undergone intensification twice over to become a deep depression (a step away from being declared a cyclone) on Friday morning.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) expected it to be declared as a cyclone over the central parts of the Bay either late into Friday night or early on Saturday morning.
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The deep depression was located about 770 km South-South-East of Vishakhapatnam; and 850 km South-South-East of Gopalpur and 920 km South-South-East of Paradip (both Odisha).
Onward track for movement will take it near the West-Central off North Andhra Pradesh–South Odisha coasts by Saturday during when it is tipped to intensify another round to become a severe cyclone.
But forward projections by the IMD suggest that the severe cyclone might weaken back to the status of cyclone by Saturday midnight itself, up to which forecasts are available. Rain outlook for Friday said that moderate rainfall is likely at many places over Coastal Odisha with heavy to very heavy rainfall over South Coastal Odisha and heavy rainfall at isolated places over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Rainfall outlook
As for Saturday, light to moderate rainfall is likely at most places over South Coastal Odisha with heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy falls at isolated places and heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, North Coastal Odisha and adjoining interior districts and also over the coastal districts of the plains of West Bengal.
Forecast for Sunday suggests light to moderate rainfall at many places over the plains of West Bengal and North Odisha with heavy to very heavy rainfall. It will be heavy at isolated places over Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura. As for Monday, light to moderate rainfall is likely at many places over Assam, Meghalaya and Mizoram and Tripura with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places.
Disastrous November storms
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the South-East and adjoining East-Central Bay on Friday and into West-Central and North-West Bay and along and off the North Andhra Pradesh-Odisha-West Bengal coasts from Friday to Sunday.
Post-monsoon cyclones of October and November in the Bay have had disastrous implications for the not just the entire East Coast of India but also for the coasts of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar, according to meteorologists.
Available data suggests that severe cyclones over the Bay have grown in their numbers during over the past few decades, especially during the month of November.