The businesslike, strained atmosphere in the BJP’s Delhi offices contrasts with the easy smiles at the AAP quarters as campaign hots up in the Capital. With opinion poll predictions ranging between a tough contest and AAP enjoying an edge, Delhi promises to deliver another edge-of-the-seat thriller election.
The ruling BJP’s master planner Amit Shah is pushing the party’s well-oiled machinery and all the top guns — Cabinet ministers to ordinary MPs — into the battlefield for the remaining nine days of electioneering.
The AAP’s gritty volunteers have forged chaotic columns around their star campaigner Arvind Kejriwal, who has already done a staggering 82 public rallies and roadshows around the Capital.
A Hindustan Times-C Fore survey predicted yet another hung Assembly in Delhi with both the AAP and the BJP vying for 31-36 seats between them. The Congress was projected to slide further — between two to seven seats this time as compared to eight seats in the 2013 elections.
The survey showed Kejriwal still topping the charts as the popular choice for the post of CM, with 43 per cent of voters backing him while the BJP’s CM candidate Kiran Bedi polled 39 per cent votes. The Congress’ Ajay Maken polled 12 per cent votes among the respondents surveyed.
Vote shares Significantly, the survey showed that the AAP vote share has gone up by 9 percentage points while for the BJP, the rise is 5 percentage points as compared to the 2013 elections.
In the 2013 elections, the BJP’s vote share was 33 per cent, followed by the AAP’s 29.4 per cent and the Congress’ 24.5 per cent.
Another survey, by ABP News-Nielsen, showed a 50-41 split favouring the AAP against the BJP, a clear increase from its last prediction, which gave an edge to the BJP.
The momentum in this close fight, at least as far as the polls go, seems to be in the AAP’s favour.
According to the AAP’s resident psephologist Yogendra Yadav, his party is headed for a “landslide”.
“I know you will accuse me of giving a biased opinion but it is a simple, objective method that I would advise you to follow. Talk to 10 random people in a day and ask them what they think of Kejriwal and AAP. You will get the answer. As far as I am concerned, there is no confusion. We are heading towards a clear majority,” he told BusinessLine .
Star-studded campaign The BJP’s roller-coaster campaign with all the stars — from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is scheduled to address four rallies, to Union Ministers Smriti Irani and Rao Inderjeet Singh, and Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan — is indicative of the single-minded determination of the party chief. Shah, who himself is scheduled to address two rallies in the Capital, is closely monitoring the campaign where the BJP as well as its ideological affiliate, the RSS, have pumped in cadre to man the booths and assist in campaigning.
The party has pressed MPs from neighbouring Sates into service to supervise the campaign and polling day activities. To top it all, Finance Minister Arun Jaitely will devote two hours each day to the campaign in Delhi.
Rank outsider The hectic campaign and the party’s bid to project a rank outsider such as Bedi may suggest a level of discomfiture in the BJP but insiders seem confident of victory.
“We are going to form the government. Don’t get taken in by the AAP propaganda. Only we have the organisational skill and the credibility to reach the majority mark,” said the BJP’s Delhi in-charge Prabhat Jha.
Although disenchantment over ticket distribution is hurting the BJP in at least 13 constituencies including Najafgarh, Tilak Nagar, Hari Nagar, Patel Nagar, Karol Bagh and Malviya Nagar, the belief is that Modi’s popularity and Shah’s organisational skill is the “magic trick” that will deliver Delhi to the BJP.
But till the last vote is counted, no one will be in a position to call it a day in either camp. Delhi is providing a capital contest one more time in just over a year.