With the boundaries of 60 of the 182 constituencies being re-drawn in Gujarat, the fortunes of the two main parties — the Congress and BJP — in the 2012 assembly elections, is likely to be hugely influenced by the delimitation process, which will alter several equations, including caste and political following.
These assembly polls will be the first after the Delimitation Commission submitted its report to the President, forcing legislators to reach out to voters in newer segments after the change in composition.
Many seats which fall in the reserved categories for SC and ST have been changed to general categories and those which were in the general categories have come under the reserved bracket.
“They may fight the elections on various issues but the main hurdle they will face in this election, which might catch them off guard, is delimitation of seats,” a senior Election Commission official said.
The statement of EC officials assumes significance as in the last (2007) election, more than 25 seats were won and lost with a margin of 3,000 votes and another 40 seats were won and lost in the margin of 10,000 votes.
The delimitation exercise is carried out on the basis of the latest census with a view that the population per assembly seat is in the same range and is done to identify reserved seats of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes.
The recommendations of the 2002 Delimitation Commission were approved by the President in 2008.
Both the Congress and BJP are unsure of the outcome of elections in seats where boundaries have been altered due to demographic and voter profile changes with respect to caste, following and religion.
“In the assembly elections where the difference of votes between the winning and losing candidates is marginal, delimitation will play a major role in the coming elections.
Earlier, we used to know the voting pattern of each and every constituency till the booth level, but this time things will be different,” a BJP leader said.