West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee expects the Karnataka elections to throw up a hung Assembly, with JD(S) supremo HD Deve Gowda being the ‘key factor’ to government formation.
“I do not expect either BJP or Congress to get a clear majority,” she said in an interview to a Kolkata-based TV channel on Friday.
According to Banerjee, HD Kumaraswamy, the JD(S) State President will become Karnataka’s Chief Minister. “My personal analysis is they (Janata Dal-Secular) will win 30-odd seats. It’s not going to be a pure BJP-versus-Congress fight there. Deve Gowda will be the key factor,” the Trinamool Congress supremo said.
Slide in BJP’s fortunes
According to her, the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will see BJP’s numbers come down drastically due to anti-incumbency and a strong show by regional parties.
The BJP is unlikely to make a mark in the South with regional parties like DMK (in Tamil Nadu), the Telugu Desam Party (Andhra Pradesh) and the TRS (Telangana) being the key players. In Kerala, either the Congress or the Left will dominate elections, she said. “The BJP votes reached its zenith in 2014. Now there will be sharp slide in 2019 and in all likelihood they will not have an absolute majority,” she said.
In Maharashtra, strained relations with Shiv Sena and a strong show by NCP will hurt BJP, while in Gujarat, the Opposition parties are gaining ground, she claimed.
In North India, too, a Mawayati-Akhilesh combine (an alliance between the BSP and the SP) should halt the BJP’s winning run. Punjab is already amongst the few Congress-ruled States in the country. In Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, the BJP faces anti-incumbency and it may be difficult for the saffron party to remain in power there during the upcoming polls.
“I do not say Shivraj Chouhan (CM of MP) or Raman Singh (CM of Chattisgarh) are bad administrators. But, they face anti-incumbency. Even a Lalu (Prasad) in Bihar and Navin Pattnaik in Odisha will be the key factors,” she said.
Federal front
Naturally, Banerjee predicts a strong coalition of regional parties – and with good numbers – to emerge as king-maker post the 2019 polls. Neither the Congress; nor the BJP are poised for absolute majority.
“Rahul Gandhi can say anything. But, it is no more a two-way fight (between Congress and BJP). The regional parties and their performance cannot be ignored. You call this a federal front, or anything else,” the West Bengal CM said.
Banerjee along with a host of other regional party heads have been trying to stitch together such a ‘non-Congress, non-BJP’ federal front.