The low-pressure area-turned-depression over South-West Bay of Bengal is now within 320 km South-East of Chennai, 300 km East-Southeast of Puducherry; and 320 km East-Northeast of Jaffna last night.
It would move west-northwestwards to close in on Tamil Nadu coast, intensify into a deep depression and subsequently into a cyclone, says India Met Department.
The cyclone, the first in the Bay of Bengal during this North-East monsoon season, is expected to cross North Tamil Nadu coast between Karaikal and Chennai close to Puducherry by tonight.
Meanwhile, some international models doubted if the system could reach cyclone status given its proximity to land. The US joint Typhoon Warning Centre saw only ‘weak development’ of the system.
Others pointed to the possibility of its crossing the peninsula and entering the Arabian Sea and getting some, if not as much, traction as two predecessors – extremely severe cyclone ‘Chapala’ followed currently by extremely severe cyclone ‘Megh.’
Twin systems
The transformation of ‘Megh’ into an extremely severe cyclone was least expected, coming so soon after ‘Chapala’ had churned up the West-Central Arabian Sea and used up a lot of kinetic energy.
‘Megh’ had passed Socotra Islands (Yemen), the first port of call before heading towards Yemen, on Sunday.
It would plough into the Gulf of Eden, cross it, and crash into the Yemen coast in a replication of what ‘Chapala’ did, but weaken twice over to a severe cyclone in the process.
Heavy rain
Meanwhile, back home, India Met Department has declared a heavy to very heavy to extremely heavy rain alert for the North Tamil Nadu coast for Monday and Tuesday.
The North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts will have to contend with rainfall at most places, and heavy to very heavy rainfall or isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cm or more) at a few places during this period.
Rains ranging from heavy to with isolated heavy would lash South and North Interior Tamil Nadu during next 24 hours and South Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala during subsequent 24 hours.
Squally weather
Squally winds reaching speed of 45- to 55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr is likely to prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts in Tamil Nadu.
Wind speeds could accelerate to 60- to 70 km/hr gusting to 80 km/hr from this afternoon.
The state of sea would be rough to very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts until tomorrow.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off the coasts of these districts coasts until Wednesday.