India Met Department (IMD has confirmed the formation of a monsoon depression in the Bay of Bengal, and has put under watch for intensification into a deep depression by tomorrow.
A deep depression is only a step away from it being declared a tropical cyclone, an eventuality a number of global agencies are predicting.
The IMD located the system 950 km to the south of Kolkata and 980 km south-southwest of Chittagong, in Bangladesh. The system is expected to move towards the Bangladesh coast.
Earlier, in the small hours of this morning, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) estimated that the 'low' in the Bay of Bengal had reached the strength of a monsoon depression.
The JTWC found the system being buffeted by winds speeding up to 55 km/hr and gusting to 74 km/hr, which satisfy the parameters defined by the IMD to be classified as one.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts said that the cyclone would weaken rapidly on making landfall it breaks down over the rugged terrains of the hills in the North-East of India.
The IMD has warned of strong surface winds and heavy to very heavy rainfall over the North-Eastern States from May 30 around when the landfall of the cyclone is expected to take place.
FISHERMEN ALERT
The warning is valid for Assam, Meghalaya, Sikkim, Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during this period.
Meanwhile, fishermen has already been advised not to venture into the sea today also, which coincides with the intensification of the depression.
As in the case of the West Coast, there is likely to be an enhanced threat of flooding and landslides in the North-Eastern States during this phase.
In this manner, the monsoon would have announced its onset over the region even as seasonal rains breaks along the Kerala coast.
After the cyclone in the Bay subsides, the monsoon flows are forecast to strengthen in the Arabian Sea and cause heavy rain along the West Coast next week.
Some models suspect that this could set up a rain-driving circulation off the Konkan, which would send the monsoon current further into Mumbai and Gujarat during the course of this week.
BAY MAY REVIVE
The circulation, which a few models say might intensify, is forecast to waltz its way off the Konkan, and could briefly disrupt the flows.
But a US-based weather tracker, which correctly forecast the Bay cyclone weeks ago, seems to assure that the Arabian Sea system might not go far and dissipate off the Gujarat-Karachi coast.
Additionally, the Bay of Bengal would have woken up from the slumber post-cyclone, and would be ready to host another monsoon-friendly low-pressure area by the end of the first week of June.
The 'low' is forecast to form in the 'Head Bay,' the sweet spot for its bearing from where it could steer itself west-northwest over land and bring monsoon into East and North-West India.
But even before this, some rain would have occurred over North-West India as a result of easterly winds from the cyclone interacting with a western disturbance over the region.