The country is likely to receive 101 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) in rainfall during the crucial month of July but only 94 per cent in August, both with a model error of ± 9 %.
Normally, July is the rainiest of the four monsoon months while August is the second rainiest. The projected deficit during August could have implications for the kharif sowing process.
NORMAL MONSOON
The month-wise outlook was put out in India Met Department's (IMD) second-stage long-range forecast for the South-West monsoon that set in over Kerala yesterday. The IMD reiterated that rainfall over the country as a whole for the four-month (June-September) season to be most likely normal (96 per cent to 104 per cent of LPA).
Quantitatively, the rainfall is likely to be 97 per cent of the LPA with a model error of ±4 per cent, it said. Region-wise forecasts indicate a slightly different pattern from what some of the global models have been saying all along.
NORMAL FOR N-W
According to the IMD, the seasonal rainfall would be 100 per cent of LPA over North-West India (mostly deficit as appearing in global model forecasts). Over Central India, it would be 99 per cent, while, for South India, it would be 95 per cent - both these are more or less is in agreement with the global model forecasts.
North-East India is once again likely to witness a less-than-normal rainfall 93 per cent this year. All these region-wise rainfall quantum figures assume a model error of ± 8 per cent.
On Wednesday, the monsoon covered the remaining parts of Kerala, most parts of Coastal Karnataka, some parts of South Interior Karnataka and interior Tamil Nadu. Its northern limit passed through Shirali, Hassan, Mysuru, Kodaikanal, and Thoothukudi.
FURTHER ADVANCE
Conditions are favourable for its further advance into some parts of the North-Eastern states during the next two days. Seasonal rains may enter more parts of the South Peninsula from Sunday, with the likely development of favourable circulation features over the seas.
This would lead to an increase in rainfall over interior Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the IMD assessed. Rains is also likely to increase over parts of Maharashtra and Goa in a week's time (from June 6, Wednesday next), leading to probable advance of the monsoon over these areas.