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The three weather systems currently driving the North-East monsoon in the South China Sea, Gulf of Thailand and the Bay of Bengal are cutting into each other's prospect for rapid intensification.
But their very presence is sufficient to sustain the strong monsoon flows well into next week, according to the latest updates from international/domestic models.
Tropical storm rages
Tropical storm 'Damrey' is the strongest of these systems and is approaching the Vietnam coast for a landfall by tomorrow.
It has been largely responsible for the delayed movement of the low-pressure area, downstream over the Gulf of Thailand and the Malay peninsula, which stays put at its overnight's bearing.
The latter's arrival into the Indian territorial waters of Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal is expected to happen today or tomorrow, India Met Department (IMD) said this morning.
According to the Thailand Met Department, under whose jurisdiction it currently falls, wind speeds are up to 35 km/hr in the Andaman Sea and up to 40 km/hr over the Indochina region.
Once the 'low' crosses in, it is expected to link immediately with the prevailing counterpart 'low 'over South-West Bengal, off Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coasts.
Rain alert stays
With the prospects of rapid intensification of either of these systems, the IMD has apparently ruled out formation of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal.
To its credit, IMD had not officially taken a call on any such development, though wind-field projections earlier had pointed to the contrary. This is however reviewed based on daily analysis.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had not at any time indicated the formation of a cyclone. But the US Climate Prediction Centre had put the Bay under watch for storm alert.
The US agency's watch will stay valid into the next week as well. Interestingly, the IMD has already signalled the formation of a fresh low-pressure area in the Andaman Sea by November 9/10.
All of these do not however take away the threat of heavy rain to the Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh coast during the weekend and into early next week.
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