It is advantage BJP in the Capital

Arvind Kejriwal won the Capital’s heart with his crusader’s zeal in the Assembly elections only four months back. But as the campaign picks up for the Lok Sabha, the slogan is being subtly replaced by a promise for the future by the BJP’s PM candidate, Narendra Modi.

What the Congress lacks in slogans, it is resolutely trying to compensate with its time-tested candidates and hard-nosed organisational work. The party’s stock is decidedly down from a clean sweep of seven seats in 2009. Realistically, the ruling party is prepared for drawing a blank in the Lok Sabha and already working towards a better performance in the Assembly elections, expected soon.

The revamped, modern office of the Delhi Pradesh Congress Committee (DPCC) at Talkatora Road is symbolic of the generational change in the party here. From the genial Shiela Dikshit, the baton has clearly passed on to the energetic team comprising DPCC president Arvinder Singh Lovely, Union Minister and the party’s candidate from New Delhi Ajay Maken and younger legislators like Haroon Yusuf. Rahul Gandhi’s structural revamp is visible in the throngs of younger workers at the DPCC office. However, they do not expect the impact of these changes to be felt in the Lok Sabha elections.

So, they believe, if the Congress does manage to pick up a few seats in the Lok Sabha, it will be entirely owing to the individual appeal of its aspirants or unfortunate selection of candidates by the BJP.

The BJP, in contrast, seems to banking entirely on its PM candidate in the absence of credible candidates or organisational support. In the decade-and-a-half that Shiela Dikshit reigned supreme in Delhi, the BJP fell prey to intense factionalism and infighting.

The selection of candidates for the Lok Sabha has been curious with the party shifting its CM candidate and MLA from Krishna Nagar (East Delhi) Harshvardhan to Chandni Chowk to fight Kapil Sibal. In New Delhi, party spokesperson Meenakshi Lekhi is a surprise choice to fight Ajay Maken and, from East Delhi, an unknown godman, Mahesh Giri, has been put up against Sandeep Dikshit and Rajmohan Gandhi of AAP.

But with opinion polls predicting a sharp increase in the party’s vote share, from 33 per cent to a staggering 41 per cent, the BJP believes it is comfortably placed in the Capital. In the last two days of campaigning, on April 6 and 7, Modi will be doing a number of rallies here. Besides the Modi factor, which has consolidated the upper caste, urban and Jat vote, the BJP’s prospects are also buoyed by a considerable dip in AAP’s popularity among middle class voters. A CSDS-Lokniti poll says as many as 47 per cent of the respondents feel Kejriwal’s decision to quit as CM was wrong.

In the Assembly elections, AAP’s vote share was higher in the urban concentrations of east, central, south and some northern constituencies.

But in the peripheral and rural areas in north-west and west Delhi, AAP did not fare as well. In Chandni Chowk, New Delhi and West Delhi Lok Sabha constituencies, AAP’s vote share is as high as 33.2 per cent, 37.88 per cent and 30.79 per cent.

A Ramani, writing in the December issue of the Economic and Political Weekly , demonstrates that except in two constituencies in south-east Delhi where the BJP fielded candidates known for their work in the slum clusters and some minority-concentrated areas, AAP did well in all the constituencies with a high number of slums.

Therefore, Kejriwal’s ongoing campaign in the Capital is focused mostly in the slum areas.

Besides, the party is expecting to wean Muslims away from the Congress.

In the Assembly elections, the only areas where the Congress fared well included the Muslim-concentrated constituencies such as Ballimaran, Chandni Chowk and Okhla. But with AAP having demonstrated an ability to win seats, the party hopes it can attract the minority vote which is pivotal to constituencies such as Chandni Chowk.

“Delhi is voting to give a credible alternative to the Congress. The AAP story is over. People are fed up of their antics.

“The BJP will win all the seven seats in Delhi because Modi is seen as the only chance the country has to get a credible, development-oriented national government,” said former Delhi BJP President Vijay Goel.