Jat reservation queers the pitch for BJP

Till a couple of months ago, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) stars were on the ascendant in the 15-odd Lok Sabha constituencies in West/North-West Uttar Pradesh, courtesy a Narendra Modi ‘wave’ and ‘Hindu vote’ consolidation following last September’s Muzaffarnagar riots.

But this picture has significantly altered after the UPA Government’s decision early this month to include Jats among Other Backward Classes, making them eligible for reservation in Central Government jobs and educational institutions.

Predominantly farmers, Jats account for an estimated 4.5 lakh voters in Mathura; 3.5-4 lakh in Baghpat and Hathras; 2.5 lakh each in Bulandshahr, Bijnor and Fatehpur Sikri; 1.75-2 lakh each in Muzaffarnagar and Amroha; and 1-1.5 lakh each in Kairana, Meerut and Moradabad. The community’s vote share in these constituencies ranges from 8 to 30 per cent. Besides, Jats can influence electoral outcomes in Ghaziabad, Saharanpur, Aligarh, Nagina and Sambhal.

Following the Muzaffarnagar riots pitting them against Muslims, the community — which usually backs the Civil Aviation Minister Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) — seemed increasingly inclined towards the BJP.

“Pehle Modi ki baath ho rahi thi. Lekin arakshan ne toh sab palat diya hai” (everyone was talking of Modi, but reservation has overturned everything), noted Dayanand Dhama, a six-acre farmer in Khekra near Baghpat.

“In our village, 50 per cent Jats, especially the youth, were going to Modi. After arakshan , we will vote RLD 100 per cent,” said Chhatrapal Singh, who farms 20 acres in Bahsuma, falling under the Bijnor constituency.

Echoing the same view was Surender Singh Tomar, the ‘Chaudhary’ (head) of the Desh Chaurasi Khap, a caste council representing 84 villages around Baghpat, Aligarh and Bijnor.

“We (the Khap) don’t give directions on whom to vote. But the general trend is towards everyone returning to RLD,” he pointed out.

Reservations apart, the Bhartiya Kisan Union leader Rakesh Tikait joining RLD and contesting from Amroha is another important recent development.

Rakesh’s brother Naresh is ‘Chaudhary’ of the Balyan Khap — covering 100 villages in and around Muzaffarnagar — while his father Mahendra Singh Tikait was a renowned farmer leader during the 1980s and 1990s.

“The Tikaits have often been at loggerheads with Ajit Singh. Their coming together sends a powerful signal to the community,” observed Rajbir Singh Chaudhary, a farmer-cum-social worker from Mundet, a village adjoining Shamli.

Jats deciding to cast their lot with RLD isn’t great news for BJP, given that community’s influence in West/North-West extends beyond plain numbers.

“Our vote share may be only around 10 per cent. But since we own most of the land, all others in the village, including Gadarias (shepherds), Jhiwar/Kashyap (water-carriers), Kumhar (potter) and various Muslim artisanal castes, vote with us,” claimed Chaudhary.

The only exception is the Dalits who, in recent times, have stood firmly behind Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

For RLD — right from the days of Ajit Singh’s father Chaudhary Charan Singh — Jats and Muslims were a strong winning combination, attracting other landowning castes such as Gujjars and Sainis.

It is this carefully crafted ‘vote bank’ that threatened to split after the Muzaffarnagar riots. As Jats veered towards the BJP, the latter looked all set to reap the harvest of a ‘Hindu’ vote consolidation.

But such consolidation seems little visible now, post Jat reservation, barring in two constituencies where the BJP is well-poised — Muzaffarnagar and Meerut.

In Muzaffarnagar, the party has fielded Sanjeev Baliyan, a Jat against BSP’s Kadir Rana and Pankaj Agarwal of the Congress.

In Meerut, its candidate is the sitting member Rajendra Agarwal, whose rivals include two Muslims (BSP’s Shahid Akhlaq and Samajwadi Party’s Shahid Mazoor), and actor Nagma fighting on a Congress ticket.

Since RLD is not contesting and left both seats to the Congress, the BJP may gain from both Jat votes and overall Hindu consolidation, according to most observers here.

In all other seats, though, it is very much an open affair, more so with Jats choosing RLD after flirting briefly with the BJP.

But it’s not going to be easy for the RLD either, given the huge Jat-Muslim trust deficit after Muzaffarnagar.

“Our campaign efforts are now focused on Muslims. Ajit Singh still enjoys goodwill among them and our alliance with Congress will further help. We need to convince Muslims that only we can take on BJP, they will vote for us,” conceded Mukesh Jain, RLD’s National Secretary.