The Assembly elections in Maharashtra, which are a mere 12 days away, will see a four-cornered fight in most of the seats.
There is a pronounced anti-incumbency feeling building up against the Congress and the NCP, which have ruled the State through an alliance for 15 years.
In their campaigns, the BJP and Shiv Sena are attacking the Congress-NCP rule for its scams and sluggish industrial growth.
On the other hand, the Congress and the NCP are busy trying to project a clean image.
Former Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan is the face of the Congress in the party’s ad campaign that was launched on Monday. It is banking on his non-corrupt image to garner votes for the party.
BJP’s chancesAccording to author and political commentator Nilu Damle, the BJP has a very good chance of forming the next government in Maharashtra if it manages to get about 100 to 115 seats.
But reaching those numbers would be difficult because the BJP still does not have a deep voter base in the State.
If the BJP gets close to forming the government then it could enter into an understanding with Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), said Damle.
The Congress may lose big time in the forthcoming elections, except in its pockets of influence that are controlled by politicians who have a strong family connection with the party high command.
The same would be the fate of the NCP, as its image has taken a big beating due to a perceived arrogance of power and money, said Damle.
Even RR Patil, who is one of the senior-most leaders of the NCP and a politician with clean image, could face electoral beating, he added.
Losing his grip“The people of Maharashtra used to have a good opinion of Sharad Pawar but now they feel that due to his advanced age, he has lost his grip over the party. He will remain the Bhishma Pitamah of the party with less influence,” Damle added.
Narendra Modi’s biographer and political analyst Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay told BusinessLine that since the BJP had drawn about 30 per cent of the State’s votes in the Parliamentary elections, it has a good chance of winning the Assembly elections.
If the BJP has to grow in Maharashtra, it has to chart its own course. Its alliance with the Shiv Sena was not drawing it any benefits, he said. In fact it had become a liability, he added.
The BJP, in spite of it being a national party, was not sure of its position before the Lok Sabha elections, and therefore desisted from splitting the alliance, said Mukhopadhyay.
“When the BJP had struck an alliance with the Shiv Sena 25 years ago, it was a small party which was trying to gain legitimacy for its Hindutva plank. But since then the BJP has grown and moved to other goals, while the Shiv Sena has remained a single-focus party with no reach beyond Maharashtra,” he added.